…and that’s the sound of the Oscar race being over a month in advance.
The Artist, specifically Michel Hazanavicius, won the DGA Award for Best Director for a Feature Film just now, which all but assures that it’ll win Best Picture and Best Director come February 26th and the Oscars.
I’m not that upset, honestly, since I love the film. But, a PGA win puts the film at a big favorite to win the Oscars (at least 75%), and a DGA win puts it at a 90+% chance that Hazanavicius will also win Best Director for the film as well. Of 64 DGA awards, the winner has differed from the Oscar winner 6 times (it’ll be 7/64 if someone else wins this time). So it’s hovering at a 10% chance someone like Scorsese will win Best Director. Not only that, but 3 of the 6 times DGA and Oscar have differed, the person who won the DGA wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar. So, really, it’s like a 5% chance that Scorsese (because let’s be real, who else will beat him?) wins. Though, for renegades: the other three times the winners differed: Carol Reed won over Anthony Harvey, Bob Fosse won over Francis Ford Coppola, and Steven Soderbergh won over Ang Lee. So, basically, more established names won over relative newcomers. (Coppola wasn’t known before The Godfather, and Ang Lee… well, actually, that one’s probably more about him being a foreigner than anything.) So it’s possible Scorsese stil wins. But still, 5% all time. Take your chances. And the worst thing that could happen now is if Hugo wins Best Picture, but Hazanavicius wins Best Director. Because if anything, it should be opposite. Even Hazanavicius says so.
Anyway, to wrap this up, the only other DGA award that matters (the rest were TV) is that Project Nim won the Best Director for a Documentary award, which means the Academy is once again out of touch with their nominations, since Project Nim wasn’t even nominated for Best Documentary. Good job once again, Academy. But at least the Documentary branch isn’t the Music branch. Right? (So yeah, The Artist is like a 90% odds-on winner next month. Isn’t it great that it’s all figured out so early? And the Academy thought bumping everything up would add more surprise to the race. Surprise, motherfuckers!)
I ranked the Best Supporting Actresses earlier in the day, so the same things apply.
- The rankings are irrelevant. They’re just personal preference. The goal here is to help you discover more movies.
- The Supporting categories are tough because they’re mainly about rewarding veterans or up-and-coming actors and actresses. (This one more so is about memorable characters and veterans.) A lot of people win for their body of work than their performances, so it makes it tougher to rank.
- Don’t get hung up on the numbers, focus on the fact that it’s about getting people to see more movies. (And if you want to criticize, I require that you’ve seen at least 50 of the performances, otherwise you’ll be completely ignored.)
This category, just to clarify, before I start ranking, is mostly about memorable characters. So I based my rankings primarily on that — on those characters that you just seem to remember after the films are over. You’ll notice that the top ten are very memorably characters. And that, to me, is the epitome of what a Best Supporting Actor winner is.
Also, keep in mind, there are only 75 of these. The category only started in 1936.
Here’s how I rank the Best Supporting Actors: (more…)
As you can see by the amount of times I’ve done it so far on the blog, I like ranking things. Ranking things is fun.
Lists, of course, create controversy, because there’s always some schmuck that thinks something shouldn’t be ranked higher than something else. So before I create any list, I specify – this is not a be-all-end-all order. I’m just listing my favorites. The real purpose of this is – because I talk about so many films and put my opinions on so many films out there, people who read the blog really get a sense of my film tastes and how they correspond to their own. Therefore, when I provide these lists, people will be able to, based on prior knowledge of how my film tastes relate to theirs, crosscheck the films they have seen with the films they haven’t, and possibly discover some great films they haven’t seen yet.
The main goal here is for people to be like, “I like that movie, and he ranked this other one above it. So since I generally like a lot of the stuff he recommends, I’ll check it out.” Or the opposite; “He always like those damn movies. Well, at least I’ll know to skip it, since he always puts them that high.” This is why I like lists. Not to make definitive statements, but to show you more movies.
So I thought it would be fun to rank all the Oscar categories (that is, Quest categories. Big six). I decided to unveil them backwards, in order to build up to the one most people would obviously give a shit about — Best Picture. So today we start with the Supporting categories. First Best Supporting Actress, and then Best Supporting Actor in a little bit. (more…)