We’ll finish up today with this one, since I went over this list a few hours ago. I wanted to save it for the end, but the other stuff requires actual effort for me to speak intelligently about them, so we’ll finish with the last easy one. (Score is also kinda easy, but I also have to look at what wasn’t eligible and all that, so I’ll just save it for the morning when I’m fresh.)
There were 75 films eligible to get on this and they shortlisted 15 of them. It seems like a weak year, so I’m expecting at least ten of these to go to the ones I tossed on my list. Honestly, let’s just see what they did.
Here’s your shortlist for Best Original Song: (more…)
That’s right, people. It’s back!
Okay, so no, it’s not officially back. The Academy is pulling that same bullshit that they did last year and only releasing a shortlist instead of all the eligible songs and then the shortlist (cowards). In fact, that shortlist is due any time now, so I’m not even gonna look for it or any of the others until I finish this article.
All — and I mean all credit to The Wrap, who managed to get a hold of the eligibles list and released an article going over their opinions of each of the nominated songs, cannily putting the titles of all of them in the article, giving us a nice tidy list without officially releasing the list. Good on you, guys.
I don’t know what the Academy is thinking, not releasing the list anymore. It’s like what the NBA did that one time where they were like, “You know, we’re not gonna televise that All Star Game draft where the players pick each other for the teams.” And a lot of people were like, “What the hell are you talking about? We love that!” Because, if people like something, they can’t get enough of it. They want more. Though something tells me that was them trying to cover their asses so they don’t look bad when the branch does something stupid (as they usually do) and doesn’t nominate one of the big songs. But trust me, guys, Original Song is not the branch you need to worry about in terms of that happening. It’s Documentaries first and International Film second. Song is a distant third at this point, and potentially could even fall out of that spot, given how generally good they’ve been over the past couple of years since they updated that archaic voting system.
Anyway, let’s get into this article, because it damn well may be the last time we ever get this again, so let’s enjoy it while we can.
Here are all 75 eligible songs for Best Original Song this year: (more…)
This is the most relaxed moment of the year for me. This is the day your thesis is turned in and all the work is done. At this point, Oscar season isn’t particularly stressful for me, but it’s a culmination of two-plus months of thinking about this stuff. And it’s been something going up every single day since December. Now, it’s all over, and the books are closed.
I wish I could say I’m remotely shocked by anything that happened. But no. This all went about how I expected it to. A couple of minor surprises here and there, but nothing that far from the realm of expectation. At one point throughout the night I remember remarking to a friend, “Bohemian Rhapsody has won every award it was nominated for. It has four awards and Black Panther has three. Which is the most Academy thing ever. ‘Look at us, we’re inclusive! (But also we’re still us.)” Honestly, how could anyone be surprised at the way things turned out? I mean, I never am because I’m so deep into this shit I’ve figured out every possible permutation for how things could have gone. So to me, this is all, “Yup, yup, yup, oh that won there, which means this will win here and it won’t win there.” I was calling out three categories ahead when they announced a new one. That’s where I’m at. I’m almost incapable of being surprised by all this. That’s why I do the Scorecard ballot thing now.
Anyway, let’s recap what happened and close the book on 2018. (more…)
So this is what I do now. This Oscar Scorecard. Which grades me on how well I pick entire categories over just winners.
The way the Scorecard Ballot works is, you take every category and rank all the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning. If the nominee ranked #1 wins, you get 1 point. 2 points for a #2, 3 points for a #3 and so on. A perfect score would be a 24 (meaning your #1s in every category won). Ties make things confusing, but it’s only happened 6 times in 89 years, so let’s just figure that won’t happen and deal with it if it does.
Ideally, most people get between 16/24 and 18/24 each year. I try to get between 18/24 and 20/24. So, of the categories you get wrong (say 7, for argument’s sake)… you want your #2 to win, so that way you’re only +7 over the minimum of 24. It’s like golf. Okay, sure, some #3s can win. It happens. But only like two. Then you’re +9. That’s reasonable. To me, a good year on the Scorecard ballot is a +6. +8 is fine, +10 isn’t great, but acceptable, and the higher you go, the worse you dod.
It’s more interesting to me, since I’m about the all-around analysis than just straight up winners. To me, the words “that’s a #4” mean something. To most people, they don’t. So this is my way of quantifying that specificity.
So, for those of you who wanna try a Scorecard Ballot for this year, here is mine for the upcoming ceremony:
My giant Oscar Ballot article went up already, but for those of you who only pretend to care about me and really only care about my picks, here we are. This is the Cliff Notes version to that article.
Very simply: what should be on your ballot, what will win if that doesn’t win, what’s on my ballot, what my preference is for full transparency, what the likelihood of each nominee winning is, and a brief analysis of the category.
Here’s your Oscar cheat sheet: (more…)
It’s Oscar night, folks. You know what that means.
I hope he does that every single day.
This is like, the one night a year where this site has a purpose. This started as an Oscar site and that’s still pretty much its bread and butter. That and movie recommendations. But I started this site with the Oscar Quest, and this article remains my extension of it. I write up all the categories, talk about what my favorites are and what I would vote for. And I also analyze all the categories and talk about how I think the night is gonna go based on all my experience doing this and my insane knowledge and research into this stuff. There’s way more information here than you need here, but this is my only excuse to be able to get it all out there, because when the hell else do I get to talk about this stuff? (more…)
So what we do here each year as a warm up for the Oscars is, I break down each of the 24 categories. The idea is to both familiarize everyone with the category and its history. I look at what the major trends are throughout the past bunch of years, how the precursors tend to go, whether they matter or not, that sort of stuff. I look at how the category came to be this year, and just anything else that seems totally pertinent about it. Then I rank each of the nominees and tell you what their likelihood (at this particular moment in time) of winning is.
This is all prelude to my giant Oscar ballot that I’m gonna give you. But I figure, if you have these as the warmup, it’s not as intimidating. You’ll have seen a lot of the pertinent trends here and we’ll all be able to reference these as a sort of cheat sheet. Plus it shows you where my head is at for how I think each of the categories are gonna go, and you can see me working my way up to all the bad decisions I usually make while guessing. Pretty much, with this, you’ll have a pretty good idea of how the category is gonna turn out.
I generally start with the most locked categories first, because I don’t really need the rest of the precursors to tell me how they’re gonna go. We’re starting with Best Original Song. Because if you really need my help with this one, you really shouldn’t be picking the Oscars. (more…)