So most years when I write this article, I talk about how good I feel, how nice it is for the crunch of awards season to be over. But honestly, I’ve been relaxed for about a week. I finished my picks and all that stuff last Sunday night after BAFTAs. I proofread it Monday morning, and really all I did between then and now was maybe tweak a ranking or two (none of which ended up actually mattering in the end, which we’ll get to). And they shortened the time span this year, so the whole thing went pretty quickly and didn’t drag on at all. And now here we are, with the entire rest of February to go. This is weird, but also kinda great.
I’ll straight up say it — I put like no effort into this year’s awards. I kept putting off having to actually think about everything until all the results were in. I thought harder about what would be nominated than I did about this. There was only about three weeks between nominations and the awards, so I just let the results come to me and once they were all in, sat down and went, “Yup, that all looks about right,” and let the picks essentially make themselves and didn’t worry all too much about it.
And for most of the night, it sure looked like I might only get one category wrong of all the 24. That didn’t happen, but I still did insanely well (sorry to spoil it at the top, but I did). But man, for a while I thought, “There’s no way I’m gonna do well on this. I feel like I’m phoning this one in.” Because most of the choices were so obvious and I didn’t agonize over them like I normally would. So I figured it had to just be that I was wrong. Or maybe I’ve just done this so long that I’ve learned that I don’t have to spend much time thinking about it all. Which is kinda freeing.
Anyway, let’s recap the Oscars, so we can finally put 2019 to rest and close out the decade in film (sort of).
So this is the quick version of the giant article I posted this morning. The Oscars are on in two hours, and just so you don’t have to go back and reference the giant article if you don’t want to (though you should, there are nice colors and gifs and everything, and I put some real effort into it), I’m giving you the abridged version of it all.
I used to do this in two articles, but I’m just gonna do it in one, since I always put the rankings here anyway, so I’ll just make that section my official ‘Scorecard’ entry for this year. (And if you don’t know what that is, go read the big article. It’ll explain it. And it’s something I recommend you start doing if you’re serious about trying to guess Oscar winners. It’s so much better than just a straight ballot.)
Anyway, here’s your Oscar cheat sheet for later on: (more…)
It’s Oscar night, folks.
I’ve done this enough to know what’s about to happen. You all want my picks for what’s gonna win because I’m the person you know who’s stupid enough to actually put real thought into this whole charade and generally am right about all this stuff, and I like talking about this nonsense. So we have the trade-off… I write a lot and you pretend to read it while skipping down to what I picked.
We all know the drill — I’m gonna ramble for 24 categories, try to make sense of it all, eventually decide “fuck it” and leave it to chance, then I’m gonna go get drunk and eat Chinese food and watch the ceremony. Everybody has their traditions.
Here’s how this works: every day leading up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. The goal is to both familiarize everyone with the category itself (how it works, what its history is and how you go about figuring out what’s gonna win) while also making it easier to reference when I write my giant article with picks and everything. A lot of the leg work is already here. But really, the goal is to see if there’s anything to look for leading into Oscar night that could be a shortcut to me picking the category.
What we do is — I give you all the winners of the category throughout history, go over all the recent trends if there are any, discuss the precursors and whether or not they matter, and then we talk about this year’s category and how we got to it, and then just look at where we are and rank the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning (at the current moment in time. Of course, things can and will change going into the ceremony). It’s all pretty simple. I’ve done this every year. Everyone should know the drill.
Today is Best Makeup & Hairstyling, which — guess what? They’re finally letting it eat at the adults table! Instead of three nominees they finally let it have five! Congrats. Now you have to talk politics and listen to Great Grandma ramble because no one else will talk to her. (more…)
The Makeup & Hairstylist Guild Awards were given out last night. I’ll make this quick, because we have nominations to guess.
Bombshell won Contemporary Makeup, Contemporary Hair and Special Makeup Effects. Joker won Period/Character Makeup and Downton Abbey won Period/Character Hair.
As a reminder, your shortlist is:
Dolemite Is My Name
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Once upon a Time in Hollywood
So that probably helps us out for later. Even though I think you could have probably figured a lot of that out just by looking at the shortlist.
Nominations Ballot coming at you in a few hours. I’m toiling away on it as you read this.
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Let’s do Makeup & Hairstyling next. Because I’m thinking I wanna end the night on some easy ones and save all the shorts for tomorrow when I can properly do my homework on all of them and be prepared.
The new development with this category is that there are not ten films on the shortlist instead of eight and the category will be five films instead of three. So that’s new. Guessing they announced that during the months I don’t really pay attention to Oscar stuff. But hey, this category is coming to play with the big boys.
Wonder what that means for guessing a category and the winner, since now it’s allowing for broader stuff to get on that might not necessarily be as good a fit but could get votes because of broader support. But whatever. That’s what we have.
Here’s your shortlist for Best Makeup & Hairstyling: (more…)
They announced this shortlist about three weeks ago, but I wanted to wait until I was mentally ready to start thinking about Oscar season before I posted it. (Because even though I don’t read that stuff, I’m already sick and tired of what I know are the countless articles out there talking about whether or not Endgame or Joker are gonna be nominated for and win Best Picture. Hearing people ask me about that stuff is like when your relative quotes something they heard on Fox News. Spare me, please.)
But, it’s almost that time, folks. And what better way to move into Oscar season than by talking about the Makeup & Hairstylists Guild!?
It’s gonna be another two weeks or so until we get our shortlist, so for now we’re operating in a vacuum. Plus, this is the one guild that is most meaningless to the proceedings because they’re gonna shortlist seven choices and only three will be nominated, and if previous years are any indication — what wins here means nothing there. A lot of times things get left off the shortlist and a lot of times you know from the jump what’s gonna get nominated and win. But hey, the season is starting. Think of this as the first almost-snowfall before the Oscar blizzard is upon us.
Here are your 2019 Makeup & Hairstylist Guild nominees: (more…)