Here’s how this works: every day leading up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. The goal is to both familiarize everyone with the category itself (how it works, what its history is and how you go about figuring out what’s gonna win) while also making it easier to reference when I write my giant article with picks and everything. A lot of the leg work is already here. But really, the goal is to see if there’s anything to look for leading into Oscar night that could be a shortcut to me picking the category.
What we do is — I give you all the winners of the category throughout history, go over all the recent trends if there are any, discuss the precursors and whether or not they matter, and then we talk about this year’s category and how we got to it, and then just look at where we are and rank the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning (at the current moment in time. Of course, things can and will change going into the ceremony). It’s all pretty simple. I’ve done this every year. Everyone should know the drill.
Today is Best Makeup & Hairstyling, which — guess what? They’re finally letting it eat at the adults table! Instead of three nominees they finally let it have five! Congrats. Now you have to talk politics and listen to Great Grandma ramble because no one else will talk to her. (more…)
The Makeup & Hairstylist Guild Awards were given out last night. I’ll make this quick, because we have nominations to guess.
Bombshell won Contemporary Makeup, Contemporary Hair and Special Makeup Effects. Joker won Period/Character Makeup and Downton Abbey won Period/Character Hair.
As a reminder, your shortlist is:
Dolemite Is My Name
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Once upon a Time in Hollywood
So that probably helps us out for later. Even though I think you could have probably figured a lot of that out just by looking at the shortlist.
Nominations Ballot coming at you in a few hours. I’m toiling away on it as you read this.
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Let’s do Makeup & Hairstyling next. Because I’m thinking I wanna end the night on some easy ones and save all the shorts for tomorrow when I can properly do my homework on all of them and be prepared.
The new development with this category is that there are not ten films on the shortlist instead of eight and the category will be five films instead of three. So that’s new. Guessing they announced that during the months I don’t really pay attention to Oscar stuff. But hey, this category is coming to play with the big boys.
Wonder what that means for guessing a category and the winner, since now it’s allowing for broader stuff to get on that might not necessarily be as good a fit but could get votes because of broader support. But whatever. That’s what we have.
Here’s your shortlist for Best Makeup & Hairstyling: (more…)
They announced this shortlist about three weeks ago, but I wanted to wait until I was mentally ready to start thinking about Oscar season before I posted it. (Because even though I don’t read that stuff, I’m already sick and tired of what I know are the countless articles out there talking about whether or not Endgame or Joker are gonna be nominated for and win Best Picture. Hearing people ask me about that stuff is like when your relative quotes something they heard on Fox News. Spare me, please.)
But, it’s almost that time, folks. And what better way to move into Oscar season than by talking about the Makeup & Hairstylists Guild!?
It’s gonna be another two weeks or so until we get our shortlist, so for now we’re operating in a vacuum. Plus, this is the one guild that is most meaningless to the proceedings because they’re gonna shortlist seven choices and only three will be nominated, and if previous years are any indication — what wins here means nothing there. A lot of times things get left off the shortlist and a lot of times you know from the jump what’s gonna get nominated and win. But hey, the season is starting. Think of this as the first almost-snowfall before the Oscar blizzard is upon us.
Here are your 2019 Makeup & Hairstylist Guild nominees: (more…)
This is the most relaxed moment of the year for me. This is the day your thesis is turned in and all the work is done. At this point, Oscar season isn’t particularly stressful for me, but it’s a culmination of two-plus months of thinking about this stuff. And it’s been something going up every single day since December. Now, it’s all over, and the books are closed.
I wish I could say I’m remotely shocked by anything that happened. But no. This all went about how I expected it to. A couple of minor surprises here and there, but nothing that far from the realm of expectation. At one point throughout the night I remember remarking to a friend, “Bohemian Rhapsody has won every award it was nominated for. It has four awards and Black Panther has three. Which is the most Academy thing ever. ‘Look at us, we’re inclusive! (But also we’re still us.)” Honestly, how could anyone be surprised at the way things turned out? I mean, I never am because I’m so deep into this shit I’ve figured out every possible permutation for how things could have gone. So to me, this is all, “Yup, yup, yup, oh that won there, which means this will win here and it won’t win there.” I was calling out three categories ahead when they announced a new one. That’s where I’m at. I’m almost incapable of being surprised by all this. That’s why I do the Scorecard ballot thing now.
Anyway, let’s recap what happened and close the book on 2018. (more…)
So this is what I do now. This Oscar Scorecard. Which grades me on how well I pick entire categories over just winners.
The way the Scorecard Ballot works is, you take every category and rank all the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning. If the nominee ranked #1 wins, you get 1 point. 2 points for a #2, 3 points for a #3 and so on. A perfect score would be a 24 (meaning your #1s in every category won). Ties make things confusing, but it’s only happened 6 times in 89 years, so let’s just figure that won’t happen and deal with it if it does.
Ideally, most people get between 16/24 and 18/24 each year. I try to get between 18/24 and 20/24. So, of the categories you get wrong (say 7, for argument’s sake)… you want your #2 to win, so that way you’re only +7 over the minimum of 24. It’s like golf. Okay, sure, some #3s can win. It happens. But only like two. Then you’re +9. That’s reasonable. To me, a good year on the Scorecard ballot is a +6. +8 is fine, +10 isn’t great, but acceptable, and the higher you go, the worse you dod.
It’s more interesting to me, since I’m about the all-around analysis than just straight up winners. To me, the words “that’s a #4” mean something. To most people, they don’t. So this is my way of quantifying that specificity.
So, for those of you who wanna try a Scorecard Ballot for this year, here is mine for the upcoming ceremony:
My giant Oscar Ballot article went up already, but for those of you who only pretend to care about me and really only care about my picks, here we are. This is the Cliff Notes version to that article.
Very simply: what should be on your ballot, what will win if that doesn’t win, what’s on my ballot, what my preference is for full transparency, what the likelihood of each nominee winning is, and a brief analysis of the category.
Here’s your Oscar cheat sheet: (more…)