So what we do here each year as a warm up for the Oscars is, I break down each of the 24 categories. The idea is to both familiarize everyone with the category and its history. I look at what the major trends are throughout the past bunch of years, how the precursors tend to go, whether they matter or not, that sort of stuff. I look at how the category came to be this year, and just anything else that seems totally pertinent about it. Then I rank each of the nominees and tell you what their likelihood (at this particular moment in time) of winning is.
This is all prelude to my giant Oscar ballot that I’m gonna give you. But I figure, if you have these as the warmup, it’s not as intimidating. You’ll have seen a lot of the pertinent trends here and we’ll all be able to reference these as a sort of cheat sheet. Plus it shows you where my head is at for how I think each of the categories are gonna go, and you can see me working my way up to all the bad decisions I usually make while guessing. Pretty much, with this, you’ll have a pretty good idea of how the category is gonna turn out.
Today is Best Adapted Screenplay. One of the races that should leave me happy no matter which way it goes. (more…)
The WGA Awards were handed out tonight.
Eighth Grade won for Original Screenplay and Can You Ever Forgive Me? won for Adapted Screenplay.
Both of those are surprising results. Eighth Grade isn’t even nominated for the Oscar, so that’s part of that one. The other part — The Favourite wasn’t eligible for WGA. And the Original Screenplay category was long considered The Favourite vs. Green Book. So now you have a situation where Green Book was in the guild without having to face The Favourite, and it still lost. That’s fascinating. And since Roma didn’t win, that means that doesn’t get a boost into “could win” territory. So now we’re back to The Favourite vs. Green Book. You can’t call it just yet because if Green Book is gonna win Best Picture, it almost certainly is gonna take Screenplay too. But man, does this make you look even more sideways at Green Book’s chances here.
And then for Adapted — Can You Ever Forgive Me? opens up the Adapted race to three films instead of two. I thought it would be either Beale Street or BlacKkKlansman, which split BFCA and BAFTA. I figured this would be the tiebreaker. Now we just have another hat in the ring. Though what’s even more interesting about the whole affair — all three of them lost the USC Scripter to Leave No Trace, which isn’t nominated for the Oscar. So now we have three scripts which won one precursor each, and no real idea how the Academy’s gonna vote for the category.
Oh well. That’s the fun of Oscar season, I guess. MPSE is announcing tonight, so those results will go up when I have them. CDG announces Tuesday and then that’ll be it for the precursors. Then I’ve got four category breakdowns left — both Screenplay categories, Sound Editing, which will go up tomorrow, and Best Picture, which will go up last. Then Friday come the Five Word Film Reviews (which are DONE already! Most years I’m rushing to write up like 300 reviews in less than a week. I did that shit already!). Saturday we do our usual Favorite Moments in the Best Picture nominees and prepare ourselves for Sunday. P.S. I’m already 43,000 words into my giant Oscar article. I’m on top of this shit this year. I am ready.
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Okay, our final shortlist for today — the Writers Guild.
These nominations always have to be taken with a grain of salt just because there are always ineligible scripts each year. I think because people aren’t actually guild members. The ones that I know for sure that weren’t eligible this year were: The Favourite, Hereditary, Sorry to Bother You, Death of Stalin, Incredibles 2, The Sisters Brothers and Leave No Trace.
Most of those really stood no shot at the final list, but The Favourite almost certainly will, so it not being nominated here means nothing for its ultimate chances in the end.
That said, here are your WGA nominees for 2018: (more…)
That’s another Oscar season in the books. I won’t lie — this was the hardest one I’ve ever had. Not in terms of picking and all that (because, spoiler alert: I did fucking great), but in terms of everything else. I honestly didn’t think I was gonna make it through to the end. I barely got my nominations picks done in time. I don’t even remember much of anything I wrote on here since early January. With the amount of stuff that was going on, I’m honestly surprised it all got done. Fortunately the one thing I was able to put some thought into since January was the giant picks article, which, as you’ll see… worked out pretty well. I will let a lot of things fall apart, but I won’t let you guys go into your Oscar pool unprepared.
Anyway, these 90th Academy Awards are in the books, and overall, while an entertaining night, and one that didn’t feel as slow as some other years (even during the segments that slowed the show down), not a particularly surprising one. So much of the night felt exactly like it was meant to go. And the moments where I was wrong, I knew what would win instead.
There’s not a whole lot for me to say about these awards. Or maybe that’s just the exhaustion talking, knowing it’s finally all over. Who’s to say, really? Let’s find out together, shall we? (more…)
So rather than just do that plain old “guessing winners” thing, I’ve decided to make my Oscar picking more complicated. Rather than having a score out of 24, I’ve now also begun doing this, which grades me on how well I can pick an entire category and not just the winner.
The way the Scorecard Ballot works is, you take every category and rank all the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning. If the nominee ranked #1 wins, you get 1 point. 2 points for a #2, 3 points for a #3 and so on. A perfect score would be a 24 (meaning your #1s in every category won). Ties make things confusing, but it’s only happened 6 times in 89 years, so let’s just figure that won’t happen and deal with it if it does.
Ideally, most people get between 16/24 and 18/24 each year. I try to get between 18/24 and 20/24. So, of the categories you get wrong (say 7, for argument’s sake)… you want your #2 to win, so that way you’re only +7 over the minimum of 24. It’s like golf. Okay, sure, some #3s can win. It happens. But only like two. Then you’re +9. That’s reasonable. To me, a good year on the Scorecard ballot is a +6. +8 is fine, +10 isn’t great, but acceptable, and the higher you go, the worse you dod.
It’s more interesting to me, since I’m about the all-around analysis than just straight up winners. To me, the words “that’s a #4” mean something. To most people, they don’t. So this is my way of quantifying that specificity.
So, for those of you who wanna try a Scorecard Ballot for this year, here is mine for the upcoming ceremony: (more…)
I put up my giant article already, but for those of you who don’t respect me (or, thinking positive, those of you who already ready it and just wanted the cheat sheet version), here’s everything I think you should take and what I’m taking in a much simpler version. Not only do I give you the extended editions, but I’m also giving you the cliff notes. (What a guy, right?)
I’ll also, in about twenty minutes, put up my Scorecard ballot for easy reference as well. That is, for those of you who wanna attempt that way of picking the Oscars. (The rankings here are not the same as my Scorecard ballot, FYI.)
Anyway, here they are, the quick picks for the 90th Academy Awards: (more…)
Ever like something so much you’d do it for free? Hi, I’m Mike DiPrisco and I’m here to talk to you about Match.com…
Admit it, that was funny.
But really, though. I’m so into the Oscars I’m about to give you 48,000 words of shit you don’t need, and the kind of analysis that, if this were sports, people would make you pay for. And I’m doing it purely out of the goodness of my own insanity. (Mostly because otherwise no one would listen to it.)
You know all those texts you guys have been sending me the past couple weeks? Well, this is all the shit I’ve got stored up that I didn’t tell you about when I answered you. If all you wanted was what I thought was gonna win — here’s way more of that than you ever needed. And if all you wanted was for me to help you win your Oscar pool, then well… same. Though I’m also helping tens of other people do the same thing, so let’s hope you don’t know anyone else who reads this site.
I’m not so much giving you all the answers (because I don’t have all the answers) as much as I’m giving you all the information you need to make the most informed decision about what you think is going to win, and helping you along with what I, your friendly neighborhood ne’er-do-well, think will win. In a way, you might say I’m giving you all the clues.