The WGA Awards were handed out tonight.
The winners were Get Out for Original Screenplay and Call Me By Your Name for Adapted Screenplay. The latter was not surprising in the least, and the former is only interesting because it beat Lady Bird. Three Billboards, the presumptive favorite to win the Oscar (at least, until it loses BAFTA next week), was ineligible here. So really it was gonna come down to which won, Get Out or Lady Bird. So here we are.
Crazy to me that The Shape of Water is nowhere in this Screenplay conversation, despite being the presumptive favorite for Best Picture. Then again, if Three Billboards really is the movie that’s gonna win the whole thing, it winning Screenplay makes more sense. But if it is The Shape of Water, you do realize that the Best Picture winner does win Screenplay like 2/3 of the time, right? It’s crazy that it doesn’t even feel like a contender at this point.
Anyway, more categories tomorrow. (And by the way, I’m also 17,000 words into my Oscar picks article, due to go up in about three weeks. Haven’t even started making choices yet. the 17,000 words is just set up. So get ready for that, eventually.)
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Every year, as we lead up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category; what the trends are, how the guilds and stuff help (or don’t), etc. I also do it as a precursor to my giant Oscar ballot. I get most of the heavy lifting out of the way here, so that way when I get to the article, I’m just kind of riffing on how I think it’ll turn out and talking myself into all the bad decisions. It’s like college. And this is the pregame.
How these articles work is — I give you all the previous winners and nominees of each of the categories, then tell you how accurate each of the respective guilds and precursors are in what they vote for versus what wins the Oscar, tell you how each of them voted this year, then give you this year’s category, along with a quick rundown of how we ended up with that category (what was a surprise, etc). After that, I rank each of this year’s nominees in terms of how I see them right now in terms of their likelihood to win. Which is nothing more than my perception (notice that underline, even though you won’t) of how the category seems at the moment based on everything I know and have seen. Which will give you a general sense of the favorites.
Today is Best Adapted Screenplay. You can tell my confidence in how categories will turn out by how long before the guilds announce that I go over the categories. (more…)
The new year is up and running, and we’ve got some guild nominations to get through.
We begin with the WGA, which is generally helpful in figuring out the Screenplay categories, outside of the fact that invariably a handful of scripts are not eligible for the WGA, which will throw a giant monkey wrench into everyone’s calculations. I know for a fact that Three Billboards and Darkest Hour are not eligible. Though I believe those are the only ones.
This is also a year where it feels like Original Screenplay is way stronger than Adapted Screenplay, which will undoubtedly lead to some ‘snubs’ there at some point during the race.
Let’s see what the WGA has given us this year: (more…)
I’d like to remind everyone that it’s a wonderful thing to be reminded that we really don’t know shit. From the start of last night, I saw how badly I was doing and was going to do could not have been more happy about it. There’s something so reassuring about that. Knowing amazing things could happen that you weren’t anticipating. Knowing that in the end, nothing happens according to plan and that life throws you curveballs constantly.
It’s not what I’d have picked, and it’s not what I thought would happen, but I love everything that happened last night. All the way down the line. I loved everything about it. (more…)
This is my new measuring stick for how well I’m doing guessing the Oscars. Rather than simply being right or wrong, this is about how well you can guess everything.
What you do is take every category and rank all the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning. If the nominee ranked #1 wins, you get 1 point. If #2 wins, you get 2 points. And you tally everything up. A perfect score would be a 24 (meaning your #1 in every category won). The only time it could be confusing is if a tie happens, but in 88 years it’s only happened six times. So we’ll deal with that should the situation arise.
Really what this does is interest someone like me, who likes to take an entire category and actually parse through what spot each of the nominees is in. To me, the words “that’s a #4” mean something. This is my way of quantifying that.
So here is my Scorecard Ballot for this year: (more…)
The giant ballot article went up this morning, and for those who don’t want to have to skim through that, here’s a cliff notes version for easy reference. This is everything you should be taking, and what I’m taking.
And in a bit, I’ll post my Scorecard as well, for those looking to attempt that as well. (Note: The rankings here my not be the ones I put on my Scorecard.)
Here are the quick picks for the 89th Academy Awards: (more…)
This is what you’ve all been texting me about for the past two weeks. This is all the info you wanted so you could win your Oscar pool. I probably should charge for this. But I’m stupid. So here you are. Hope you’re not all in the same pools!
As is always the case, in order to get the simple answers — what I think is gonna win and what you should pick — you have to deal with all the extra shit that only I’m interested in. But you know, at least I’m having fun, right?
Simply guessing the Oscars used to be fun for me. Betting people dinner in college if they could outguess me. (They couldn’t.) Now I’m on some next level shit. I’m not even about picking winners anymore. Now I’m all about picking nominees, and diagnosing the categories. I’m on a whole other scale of grading myself. Which means I’m gonna write a whole lot of nonsense here, and you can read as much or as little of it as you want. I make it as easy for you to ignore me as you possibly can. And then you have to live with yourself, you callous monster.
This article is both my personal ballot (an extension of all my Oscar Quest articles) and a full on analysis of Oscar night for everyone. That’s really the part you’re here for. You don’t care what I think. You wanna know what’s gonna win. (more…)