Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.
Today is Best Visual Effects. A category that used to be automatic, but now the whole thing got blowed up. Fortunately that’s not part of the conversation this year. But still. (more…)
The VES Awards were last night. They have a lot of awards, so we’ll run through them quickly.
The basics of what you need to know — The Jungle Book won a lot of awards. Five, to be exact. They won for Photoreal FX (the big award), Animated Performance (King Louie), Effects Simulations, Virtual Cinematography and Composting.
Deepwater Horizon won for Supporting FX and Outstanding Model, while Doctor Strange won for Created Environment (NYC).
In the Animated field, Kubo won for Animated Effects, Finding Dory won for Animated Performance (Hank) nd Moana won for Animated Created Environment (Motonui Island) and Effects Simulations.
As your category for the Oscars is Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book, Kubo and the Two Strings and Rogue One, I would say that puts The Jungle Book as a pretty big favorite, if it wasn’t already. BAFTA is on Sunday, and that should lock that into place even further, as BAFTA tends to have a pretty good history and predicting who will win the Visual Effects category, especially in years without Best Picture nominees in the fold.
Okay, and now for the one guild I hate writing up, because they have too many categories and I have to cut most of them out just to deal with them. Visual Effects Society.
I cut most of the categories out because visual effects is such a major part of filmmaking now, in order for them to do their members justice, they need to have a million categories. But only like six to ten matter for me, so I only deal with the six to ten. And even then it’s a fucking chore, since there are all these categories, and a shortlist, and you don’t know which categories mean more than others — it’s chaos.
So here are your VES nominees: (more…)
That was fast. The longlist was announced like two weeks ago. They announced 20, and now have whittled it down to 10.
For the record, when I went over the list and guessed what was gonna be nominated, I picked what I thought the shortlist would be. I got 8 of 10. Yeah, boy!
Here’s your shortlist for Best Visual Effects: (more…)
The Academy announced their longlist for Best Visual Effects. There are 20 films on it. In the next ten to fourteen days, this list will be halved. And then half of that will be your category.
The fun part about a longlist is you can see what films are never going to make it on.
Here are the 20 films “competing” for Best Visual Effects: (more…)
So the Oscars were last night. A lot to talk about.
This is where we officially close the book on 2015 and move into 2016. I’ll try to give everything its due, but there was a point about an hour into the ceremony where I was just kind of over it and wanted to move on.
Overall it was a strange year. They really spread the wealth around. Mad Max won six, I think, and then The Revenant won 3 and Spotlight won 2 and then everything else only won 1. Crazy.
A lot of major stats fell and a lot of crazy shit happened. So let’s get into it: (more…)
My friend introduced me to this last year. I had no idea people did it, and I honestly think it’s the best way to pick the Oscars. Here’s how it works:
You take every category and rank all of the nominees in terms of order you think they’re going to win. If your #1 choice wins, you get 1 point. If #2 wins, you get to. Etc. And in the end, you tally your score up. And the lowest score (24 being the lowest) wins. It’s very simple, and the only time it gets confusing is if a tie happens, which is pretty rare in the history of the Academy (even though one did happen in 2012).
I prefer it because it’s based more on diagnosing the category than simply picking a winner. And diagnosing categories is my specialty.
Here’s my scorecard for this year’s Oscars: (more…)