The Visual Effects Society announced their nominees. I hate talking about them because there are just so many categories. I don’t even bother mentioning some of them because it gets really specific and doesn’t have a whole lot to do with guessing the Oscars. Good for them for giving the guild members their due, but it’s just too much for me to handle. Commercials, student films — too much.
Before we get into the nominees, a reminder of your shortlist:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
War for the Planet of the Apes
Five of these ten will be nominated on Tuesday. So here are your VES nominees. Let’s see how these ten fare: (more…)
Remember when, nine days ago, they announced the longlist for this category and everyone called it a shortlist? And then they announced the actual shortlist and everyone said ‘shortlist’ again? That’s how you can tell people have no fucking clue what they’re talking about in relation to the Oscars.
They narrowed the Visual Effects field down to ten contenders today. Five of these will be nominated. In years past, you can usually point out at least four major nominees from the list, and then you can probably cobble together one or two other possibilities for the last spot. It’s generally helpful when they narrow the category down for you beforehand.
Also, for what it’s worth, when I guessed my shortlist, I got 7 out of the 10 right. Which either means I’m really good at what I do or it’s just an easy year to guess. (I think we all know which one it is.) (more…)
Another day, another category gets whittled down.
All the people covering this have called it a shortlist. But it’s not. The shortlist comes later. Unless you’re gonna call the next list with 10 contenders the short(er)list, then you can call it that. This is a longlist. I’m not saying otherwise just for clicks.
But still — they narrowed the Visual Effects field down to 20 films, and pretty soon they’ll narrow it down to 10. So for now, we’ll go over the 20 and then guess which ten they’ll narrow it down to in like three or four weeks.
Here’s your longlist: (more…)
I’d like to remind everyone that it’s a wonderful thing to be reminded that we really don’t know shit. From the start of last night, I saw how badly I was doing and was going to do could not have been more happy about it. There’s something so reassuring about that. Knowing amazing things could happen that you weren’t anticipating. Knowing that in the end, nothing happens according to plan and that life throws you curveballs constantly.
It’s not what I’d have picked, and it’s not what I thought would happen, but I love everything that happened last night. All the way down the line. I loved everything about it. (more…)
This is my new measuring stick for how well I’m doing guessing the Oscars. Rather than simply being right or wrong, this is about how well you can guess everything.
What you do is take every category and rank all the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning. If the nominee ranked #1 wins, you get 1 point. If #2 wins, you get 2 points. And you tally everything up. A perfect score would be a 24 (meaning your #1 in every category won). The only time it could be confusing is if a tie happens, but in 88 years it’s only happened six times. So we’ll deal with that should the situation arise.
Really what this does is interest someone like me, who likes to take an entire category and actually parse through what spot each of the nominees is in. To me, the words “that’s a #4” mean something. This is my way of quantifying that.
So here is my Scorecard Ballot for this year: (more…)
The giant ballot article went up this morning, and for those who don’t want to have to skim through that, here’s a cliff notes version for easy reference. This is everything you should be taking, and what I’m taking.
And in a bit, I’ll post my Scorecard as well, for those looking to attempt that as well. (Note: The rankings here my not be the ones I put on my Scorecard.)
Here are the quick picks for the 89th Academy Awards: (more…)
This is what you’ve all been texting me about for the past two weeks. This is all the info you wanted so you could win your Oscar pool. I probably should charge for this. But I’m stupid. So here you are. Hope you’re not all in the same pools!
As is always the case, in order to get the simple answers — what I think is gonna win and what you should pick — you have to deal with all the extra shit that only I’m interested in. But you know, at least I’m having fun, right?
Simply guessing the Oscars used to be fun for me. Betting people dinner in college if they could outguess me. (They couldn’t.) Now I’m on some next level shit. I’m not even about picking winners anymore. Now I’m all about picking nominees, and diagnosing the categories. I’m on a whole other scale of grading myself. Which means I’m gonna write a whole lot of nonsense here, and you can read as much or as little of it as you want. I make it as easy for you to ignore me as you possibly can. And then you have to live with yourself, you callous monster.
This article is both my personal ballot (an extension of all my Oscar Quest articles) and a full on analysis of Oscar night for everyone. That’s really the part you’re here for. You don’t care what I think. You wanna know what’s gonna win. (more…)