I’d like to remind everyone that it’s a wonderful thing to be reminded that we really don’t know shit. From the start of last night, I saw how badly I was doing and was going to do could not have been more happy about it. There’s something so reassuring about that. Knowing amazing things could happen that you weren’t anticipating. Knowing that in the end, nothing happens according to plan and that life throws you curveballs constantly.
It’s not what I’d have picked, and it’s not what I thought would happen, but I love everything that happened last night. All the way down the line. I loved everything about it. (more…)
This is my new measuring stick for how well I’m doing guessing the Oscars. Rather than simply being right or wrong, this is about how well you can guess everything.
What you do is take every category and rank all the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning. If the nominee ranked #1 wins, you get 1 point. If #2 wins, you get 2 points. And you tally everything up. A perfect score would be a 24 (meaning your #1 in every category won). The only time it could be confusing is if a tie happens, but in 88 years it’s only happened six times. So we’ll deal with that should the situation arise.
Really what this does is interest someone like me, who likes to take an entire category and actually parse through what spot each of the nominees is in. To me, the words “that’s a #4” mean something. This is my way of quantifying that.
So here is my Scorecard Ballot for this year: (more…)
The giant ballot article went up this morning, and for those who don’t want to have to skim through that, here’s a cliff notes version for easy reference. This is everything you should be taking, and what I’m taking.
And in a bit, I’ll post my Scorecard as well, for those looking to attempt that as well. (Note: The rankings here my not be the ones I put on my Scorecard.)
Here are the quick picks for the 89th Academy Awards: (more…)
This is what you’ve all been texting me about for the past two weeks. This is all the info you wanted so you could win your Oscar pool. I probably should charge for this. But I’m stupid. So here you are. Hope you’re not all in the same pools!
As is always the case, in order to get the simple answers — what I think is gonna win and what you should pick — you have to deal with all the extra shit that only I’m interested in. But you know, at least I’m having fun, right?
Simply guessing the Oscars used to be fun for me. Betting people dinner in college if they could outguess me. (They couldn’t.) Now I’m on some next level shit. I’m not even about picking winners anymore. Now I’m all about picking nominees, and diagnosing the categories. I’m on a whole other scale of grading myself. Which means I’m gonna write a whole lot of nonsense here, and you can read as much or as little of it as you want. I make it as easy for you to ignore me as you possibly can. And then you have to live with yourself, you callous monster.
This article is both my personal ballot (an extension of all my Oscar Quest articles) and a full on analysis of Oscar night for everyone. That’s really the part you’re here for. You don’t care what I think. You wanna know what’s gonna win. (more…)
Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.
Today is Best Cinematography. This is your annual reminder that Roger Deakins has never won this category. (more…)
The ASC Awards were the second awards from last night we’re dealing with.
To start — they’re not the end-all, be-all for what’s gonna win the Oscar. Going back, they’re 13 for 30 all time. Of the past 24 years, they’re at an even 50%. 12/24. So they’re not something you need to listen to, necessarily.
This year in particular, it’s a pretty open category. You expect La La Land to be a favorite. You expect Silence and Arrival to get votes. Lion will get votes too. And I’m sure Moonlight will as well. It’s pretty open. This will be one of those categories you think about for a while, since so many of them feel practically locked already.
But anyway — your ASC winner this year was Grieg Fraser for Lion. Making that more of a favorite than it was. at this point that and La La Land have to be considered #1 and #2. We’ll see what BAFTA has to say next weekend (though they’re 50% over the past 20 years too, so that’s not gonna necessarily help us all that much).
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A lot of shortlists today. They’re coming fast and furious in time for nominations day next week. We begin with the American Society of Cinematographers and their nominations.
I haven’t particularly clocked what the best shot films were this year, and without a mental checklist of the big names of the past few years/most years (no Chivo, no Deakins) having films this year, I’m feeling like the list they chose is pretty much chalk. It feels like the obvious choices. But when pressing myself for alternatives, I couldn’t really think of a whole lot. I’m sure I could if I really thought about it, but on an initial attempt, I feel like they did okay.
Here are your ASC nominees: (more…)