The B+ Oscar Ballot: Guide to the 98th Academy Awards

We broke a lot of barriers this year — multiple foreign Best Picture nominees, the overall nominations mark, a brand new category for casting, the highest concentration of nominations among top films. This year has six films with 8+ nominations. I don’t even have to look to know that’s the most there’s ever been.

Which tells me that, ultimately, we’re probably gonna settle into what’s been happening the past few years, which is sweeps at the top, and then a couple of categories that could go in surprising ways near the bottom of the ballot. So… mostly the same as always.

Though this year feels more fun because it feels like at least two acting categories (if not three) can legitimately go multiple ways. Normally we have three locked acting categories and one that feels open. There’s only one locked acting category at the moment. But then, below the line looks fairly locked. So it balances.

This is a year where I revel in focusing on a scorecard than straight winners and losers, because it’s pretty clear what the contenders are. So I don’t really have a horse in the race for what’s gonna win. I’m just gonna let them do what they do and see if I can figure it out. I’m also fortunate that a lot of things I like are going to win, so there’s very little room for disappointment and mostly I’ll just be happy for what wins.

Best Picture

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

My Personal Rankings:

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Sinners
  3. Sentimental Value
  4. The Secret Agent
  5. Train Dreams
  6. Marty Supreme
  7. Hamnet
  8. Frankenstein
  9. Bugonia
  10. F1

My Thoughts: This is a respectable list. Not an all-timer category, but not a bad film in the bunch. Just a couple that probably shouldn’t be here. F1 being the primary example. It’s a great piece of entertainment. It’s not close to being the best picture of the year. Sometimes you get one of those. Not the film’s fault in the least. So it goes tenth for me because it would be a terrible winner. Bugonia is next. It’s good Yorgos, not great Yorgos. Plus not everything needs to compete. Just being here is fine. Frankenstein’s another — as much as I love the filmmaking and enjoy the film, I don’t think it needs to win. So it’s gonna be as far toward the bottom of my list as possible. Hamnet I just don’t love enough to vote for. Marty Supreme I liked a lot, but not enough to take it over the other choices. Train Dreams is the first film that I could tell myself I’d vote for on its own merits. That’s where my list proper starts for serious contenders.

The Secret Agent, while it wasn’t something I’d rate as high as some of the films ranked below it, a foreign film winning would be more interesting than most. Same for Sentimental Value. Then, Sinners. Loved it, for a lot of reasons I’d be fine with it winning even though I don’t consider it the best film of the year. If it weren’t for my actual #1 film of the year being on this list, I’d have been happy voting for it. But my #1 film of the year is on this list, so that’s the vote.

My Vote: One Battle After Another

Should Have Been Nominated: The Phoenician Scheme, Nouvelle Vague

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • PGA: One Battle After Another
  • BAFTA: One Battle After Another
  • SAG: Sinners
  • CCA: One Battle After Another
  • Globes: One Battle After Another, Hamnet

Most Likely to Win: One Battle After Another. PGA and BAFTA alone make it the favorite. The Globes and CCA just solidify it. It’s the film to beat.

The Competition: Sinners. It won SAG. That’s something. Though it lost the Globe, which is interesting. Even Moonlight won the Globe en route to a win. But there’s not a single person looking at this from afar that doesn’t know what the top two choices are.

Spoiler Alert: Hamnet. It’s the only other film with a measurable precursor. Though, like most years, we see how distant the third choice actually is, because I can’t see any scenario where this actually manages to pull it off. I don’t see a scenario where any film outside the top two pulls it off.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Hamnet

4. Sentimental Value

5. The Secret Agent

6. Marty Supreme

7. Frankenstein

8. Train Dreams

9. Bugonia

10. F1

The Smart Choice: One Battle After Another. The PGA has only been wrong 10 times ever, twice in the past decade and not since 2019. It could happen, sure. 16 nominations is nothing to sneeze at. But the smart choice is the film that’s won all the important precursors and has been pretty much consistently on a tear throughout the race.

The Deal: One Battle After Another is probably gonna take it. Could Sinners beat it? Could this be like Parasite where pure love for a film helps take it home? Sure. Am I going to guess that? Sure won’t. I’ll just be wrong. We all know it’s a one or the other deal. And since I value the Scorecard over straight winners and losers, I’m gonna be fine no matter what. And so I’ll take the film that’s won the most precursors and is also almost certainly winning Director and the most overall awards. Thing is, though… I don’t know if this film is polarizing enough to lead to a scenario where Sinners beats it. I see a significant portion of the crowd more likely to have that film rated lower than this one. But it also doesn’t matter if the tops carry it. So we’ll see.

The Vote: One Battle After Another

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Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
  2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
  3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
  4. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
  5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

My Thoughts: Let’s start with the obvious — it’s Anderson for me, and it’s always gonna be Anderson for me. Not even counting the fact that he probably should have won this award at least once already, it’s my favorite film and effort of the year, so he’s gonna be the vote. Now — Coogler — incredible piece of work. I’m not sure he’d ever be the choice for me on pure effort. I think the whole there is greater than the sum of the parts, but I’d be very happy to vote for him a lot of the time, were someone other than Anderson in this category. Safdie — great piece of work, though I do feel that he’s treading on the same ground as Good Time and Uncut Gems, which is fine. But it’s the same reason why, even if I’d nominate him a lot of the time, I’d find a difficult time finding a reason to vote for Wes Anderson. I’ve seen him do it (and possibly do it better) before. Still, good work. Zhao — also great work. Just not something I love enough to vote for. Same for Trier. Love that he’s here, just wouldn’t take him. I’ve got my winner.

My Vote: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Should Have Been Nominated: Richard Linklater, Nouvelle Vague

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • DGA: Anderson
  • BAFTA: Anderson
  • CCA: Anderson
  • Globes: Anderson

Most Likely to Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another. Clean sweep. You know the deal.

The Competition: Ryan Coogler, Sinners. If it’s anyone else, it’ll be him. I think we all know this.

Spoiler Alert: Chloe Zhao, Hamnet. Trier has his category he’s gonna win, and Safdie has zero chance. If it’s anyone, it’s Chloe. Without the overall strength of Sinners, I might have even had her second. But having won already, plus Sinners being what it is, you can’t consider her higher than third.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

3. Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

The Smart Choice: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another. He swept. How you gonna take anyone else? Even if it loses Picture, he’s gonna win this. We don’t mess with a sweep in Director.

The Deal: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another is gonna win. It’s finally his time.

The Vote: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

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Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
  2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
  3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
  4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
  5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

My Thoughts: Solid group of actors. Nice to see Jordan get nominated. Not something I’d vote for, but good work. Moura, very good in a very restrained performance. The kind of performance that’s the kiss of death for this category because of how often voters go for flash. But I’m happy he’s here. Hawke gives one of the best performances of his career and it’s an extremely underrated piece of work. Don’t like him as the vote in this one, but it’s fantastic work. The choice for me is between Chalamet and DiCaprio. And as much as I think Chalamet is terrific in his film… DiCaprio is so damn entertaining he’s gotta be the choice for me. I don’t care about logistics and all of that — DiCaprio gave my favorite performance, so I’m voting for him.

My Vote: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Should Have Been Nominated: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • SAG: Jordan
  • CCA: Chalamet
  • Globes: Moura, Chalamet

Most Likely to Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners. It’s not the SAG win. I could’ve told you he’d win SAG before we even had nominations. That’s not why he’s here. It’s the complete nosedive Chalamet’s taken in the last half of the race. The momentum seems fully in Jordan’s camp and, with his film fixing to do better overall, I do think he’s moved himself into the pole position.

The Competition: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme. He has the most precursors and was the clubhouse leader to start, but he’s faded so fast and at this point it feels like we’re ready to put the nail in the coffin on him and his movie. Without BAFTA making a decision, and the way momentum has gone, if he holds on, it’ll be a miracle.

Spoiler Alert: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent. I don’t see Hawke being the choice. You have to go back 20 years to someone who won this category in a film without either a Picture nomination or another acting nomination. And DiCaprio has had no momentum at all throughout the race and seems like he didn’t bother campaigning because he knew he wasn’t going to win. So that leaves Moura, in a film that had enough love to get in the Picture list. I haven’t felt the surge in people talking about the performance that make me think he can win (and that Globes win feels a little… ‘home field’-y), but if there’s a spoiler in a race where people don’t want to take someone, he feels like it.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

The Smart Choice: I think it has to be Michael B. Jordan, Sinners. The absolute bombing of Marty Supreme in the places that have actual voters in them — 11 BAFTA nominations, zero wins. And Chalamet just blowing what felt like a layup of a lead and feeling like he’s spiraled out of the top spot and is now fighting with three other potential winners in a dead heat kind of race. Meanwhile, Jordan is beloved and the film having so many nominations… they might look at this as a way to get it something big without getting it Picture or Director. The SAG win is not an automatic win (despite the history), but there’s a lot of reason to think he can pull this one off.

The Deal: It’s tough. Because SAG is a popularity contest and Jordan was always going to win it. If Chalamet had won BAFTA, we’d all be saying this is Chalamet in a walk. But BAFTA went off the board. And without knowing who got the second-most votes there, we only have two ‘lesser’ precursors for Chalamet, the big one for Jordan and then Moura hanging out there with the Globes win and not really being involved in the others to have lost them. If I thought Moura’s win at the Globes was something more than an international voting body that has a lot of voters from the country that made his film, then I’d make a stronger argument for him as the spoiler. But reasonably speaking (and while there is a legitimate argument for him as a spoiler), I can make just as strong a case for DiCaprio or even Hawke for that spoiler spot. Don’t discount something insane. But that said… while you can drive yourself nuts arguing for everyone, eventually you have to make a choice. I think ultimately I am going to side with the more popular film and take Michael B. Jordan, Sinners. I don’t necessarily think he’s the for sure winner her, but I also am starting to be convinced that it’s not Chalamet, which means that if it’s not, either it’s Jordan or something real wild is gonna happen. I can’t in good conscience just guess Hawke or DiCaprio, and I’d rather have Jordan over Moura and just let that happen. And since I can’t fully pull the trigger on Chalamet anymore, I’m just gonna side with the favorite and then, if Chalamet pulls it off, be wrong. I had Chalamet up until yesterday and was planning to take him, but I’ve learned to listen to the tides. And I just think that all the intangible factors point more toward Jordan than Chalamet. So let’s see what happens.

The Vote: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

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Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
  2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
  3. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
  4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
  5. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

My Thoughts: This category could have potentially reached all-timer status with one change. And instead… Kate Hudson. Love her, hate the nomination. It’s not her fault, it’s the byproduct of a biased system and a voting body that only watches things when prompted by marketing departments or award shows (that also discriminates based on age when it suits them, which is often). Meanwhile, Stone is terrific, as per usual, but gives what I feel is her least interesting performance with Yorgos. Which speaks to the level of all her performances than anything. Next, Buckley. The narrative of the film is doing most of the heavy lifting, which doesn’t diminish her performance, but does give her, in my mind, a disadvantage next to the other two. I feel the other two could only have done those parts, whereas there were a number of people who could have played Buckley’s role and been just as good. Still, she’s incredible and I will not begrudge the eventual win. For me, the two best (nominated. All respect to Amanda Seyfried) performances are Byrne and Reinsve. I’m very torn on which I prefer between them. They’re different performances. We’ll see what time does for me, but right now, I think the choice is Byrne. She’s the one that landed the most for me immediately (and the only one that never felt like she was acting, which is a feat in and of itself), and, I’ll stick with that feeling.

My Vote: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Should Have Been Nominated: Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee; Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • SAG: Buckley
  • BAFTA: Buckley
  • CCA: Buckley
  • Globes: Buckley, Byrne

Most Likely to Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet. Sweeps make things easy.

The Competition: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. She won the Globe, making her the only other person with a precursor. It’s distant, but she’s still second.

Spoiler Alert: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value. If it’s anyone, it’s 100% her. She’ll get votes and were Buckley less of a runaway I might try to make a case for her winning.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

4. Emma Stone, Bugonia

5. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

The Smart Choice: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet. This is about as clean as you can get in an acting category. Plus the film, and the role… how do you make the case against her?

The Deal: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet is winning this. You can’t even feel a hint of momentum elsewhere.

The Vote: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

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Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
  2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
  3. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
  4. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
  5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

My Thoughts: Crazy that Elordi actually made it. I put him fifth just because it’s a role that has been done many times before. I don’t need to see it win. I’ve been consistent about this. Meanwhile, Skarsgard, while kind of a lead, just comes up short for me compared to the others. Terrific work, alongside a career of terrific work. He just came up short against those other three. Next — Lindo. I love that man, and I am so happy he was nominated. I think he gives a true supporting performance in that there is nothing flashy or scene-stealing about what he does in any way. He just makes a great impression in a role that’s not overly built to be that showy. Unfortunately, that does not help in this category. Though of everyone here, seeing him win would make me the happiest. But I also don’t think he gives the best supporting performance of the five here (though I appreciate the cosmic justice for Da 5 Bloods). Penn creates one of the most memorable characters of this year and it’s almost difficult to vote against him. He’s just phenomenal in that role. But to me, Benicio is the best character of the year. I can’t not vote for him. It’s a note perfect performance in every way.

My Vote: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Should Have Been Nominated: Kevin O’Leary, Marty Supreme

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • SAG: Penn
  • BAFTA: Penn
  • CCA: Elordi
  • Globes: Skarsgård

Most Likely to Win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another. SAG and BAFTA cannot be ignored. They have actual voters in them. And him being a veteran and playing one of the most memorable characters of the year, you can’t not consider him the frontrunner.

The Competition: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value. The Globes win helps. I worry that he lost both SAG and BAFTA to Penn and that the Globes is skewing heavily international, which may have tipped some things in his favor. But a win’s a win. So he’s gotta be considered second choice.

Spoiler Alert: Delroy Lindo, Sinners. I put zero stock in the Elordi win, and Benicio has lost every step of the way, so unless we’re pulling some crazy upset, the only spoiler here is Lindo. If we’re gonna get a Marcia Gay Harden situation, let’s actually go for the person with zero precursors who hasn’t lost every step of the way. The only downside is, with Harden, everyone else split the precursors and we had what looked like a close vote split among everyone. Here, we’ve got someone with two wins. Had Benicio won either SAG or BAFTA, then I’d have said we should have a serious conversation. Here, Lindo’s someone who could come in.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

2. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

The Smart Choice: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another. Gotta be. SAG and BAFTA have Oscar voters in them. That tells you a lot. SAG actually does tell me a lot, because it is a popularity contest, and since the current majority SAG voting body is not voting for Sean Penn the human, it means they really liked his character. That means I don’t want to mess around with this one. I still can make a serious case for Lindo or Skarsgard, but given the two big wins, Penn remains the smart choice.

The Deal: I think the evidence is showing that Sean Penn, One Battle After Another is the likely winner. Someone winning with CCA only has never happened. Given the performance/film/actor that has it this year, I’m not betting on this being the one. The last time Globes-only happened was Clooney in 2005. So Skarsgard winning has precedent, but, given all the outside factors both in 2005 and this year, I’m thinking he’s closer to the spoiler than the second choice. I know the Globes win was visible, but I would be moderately surprised if he was the one that won this. Finally, the last time someone won without any precursors was James Coburn in 1998. No real precedent there. And I don’t think, in a situation where we have two people from the same film, the one without precursors is suddenly going to jump up and win (as much as I’d love that). So that means, and the eye test plays this out — it’s either gonna be Penn or Lindo. Lindo got the surprise nomination, everyone was happy for him, then the BAFTA incident happened, and the film has a lot of overall support and people will vote for both him and Jordan. I think, if anyone’s beating Penn (and it’s very possible that happens), Lindo’s the guy. So give me Penn just because I feel like you gotta be crazy to not take him (literally any other year, SAG and BAFTA would seal it), and I’ll let Lindo beat him if he’s gonna.

The Vote: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

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Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
  2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
  3. Amy Madigan, Weapons
  4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
  5. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

My Thoughts: I don’t… love this category. Performances are all good, it just… doesn’t feel that exciting to me, and I can’t explain why. Almost all first-timers, though. That’s awesome. To start — Mosaku… she has that one really powerful scene with Jordan at the beginning, and then I don’t feel like there’s a lot with the performance after that. I just don’t feel like I saw enough to vote for it. Fanning has a very tough role and pulls it off gracefully. Unfortunately she’s not the better of the two supporting performances in the film. Taylor is great in her role and her role lingers in the film after she’s not in it. That does count for quite a bit. Madigan doesn’t show up until late, but man, what an impact she makes. I think Taylor’s impact feels greater to me, so I’ll lean toward her in a very close tossup. Either way, I still think the greatest performance I saw in this category is Lilleaas. So she’s my choice.

My Vote: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Should Have Been Nominated: Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • SAG: Madigan
  • BAFTA: Mosaku
  • CCA: Madigan
  • Globes: Taylor

Most Likely to Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons. She’s the only one with two precursors and one of them is SAG. However you want to factor in all the reasons why this is a shaky favorite who can lose, she’s still got to be considered the favorite on those two wins alone.

The Competition: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another. It’s the most visible win left. Mosaku winning BAFTA did not sway me that she can be a legitimate winner, so that leaves me with the person who has a precursor and whose film is poised to win another acting award and sweep at the top (and yes, I’m aware the same is also possible for Mosaku).

Spoiler Alert: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners. Neither Sentimental Value actress has pulled any wins or shown any momentum, and if there’s one thing you learn on a vote split scenario, if one doesn’t immediately separate themselves, neither are winning. So that leaves Mosaku as the third choice and essentially a three-person race.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons

3. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

5. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

The Smart Choice: Amy Madigan, Weapons. She’s the only person with two precursors, and she’s the veteran in the group (her last nomination was 40 years ago) and she’s respected. That counts for something in a voting body that, while maybe not as much as ten years ago, skews older. Do I worry that people haven’t seen the film? Absolutely. Penelope Cruz is the last person to have won this category as the only nomination from her film. Before her? Angelina Jolie. Before her, Marisa Tomei. Not an amazing track record. 3 in 30 years. But she feels like the safest choice in a category that doesn’t have a clear-cut favorite.

The Deal: We have a situation where the two people without precursors are from the same film. And given the possibility of a vote split always (and the fact that foreign films tend to get lower overall views among voting members), I think we can safely discount those two and can just let either happen. You’d have known by now if either have a shot (and which one it was. The fact that neither emerged above the other does not bode well). So that leaves three people, each with precursors.

What jumps out at me is the fact that never in the history of four precursors has somebody won with only a Globes win. Every Globes winner who won managed at least one other precursor. That gives me pause on Taylor’s actual chances here (historically speaking). Meanwhile, BAFTA only has happened three times. Though one was 2008, the Kate Winslet/Penelope Cruz year, so it’s kind of only twice. Also, those other two winners were British (which Mosaku is). That makes me think they were gonna vote for the hometown nominee anyway and they just got lucky that they won. So I’ve got reservations about taking her too.

That leaves me with the distinct possibility that Amy Madigan, Weapons is actually the person who’s gonna win this. SAG was a major feather in her cap. Plus she’s a veteran who people respect, and that bodes well in a smaller voting field, even if the older demographic didn’t watch (or like) Weapons. Based on some previous winners (Jamie Lee Curtis springs to mind), they do vote for people over performance. So I think Madigan is bolstered on that front. I also think Taylor maintains second status just on the film, because I don’t think the people who won’t take Madigan are firmly in one particular camp. I don’t think enough people saw or care about Sentimental Value to take either nominee there and Mosaku is gonna get votes from the ‘all in on Sinners’ crowd but I don’t think she’ll get enough outside of that to truly contend. Which leaves Taylor, making a good impression in the presumptive Picture winner. It feels like either her or Madigan is gonna win this.

My gut still tells me that somehow, some way, Taylor pulls this off, but the smart money has to be on Madigan. I can’t get over Madigan’s film, and I think that’s going to be the sticking point for me. I just don’t know if I can trust or buy that the majority voting body of the Academy is going to have actually watched Weapons like that. It’s a film that skews younger. I don’t know if the Academy (which nominated F1 in Best Picture) is actually going to vote for her/a film that got only one nomination that they weren’t forced to watch. Let’s also not forget the genre aspect. Supporting Actress in a horror movie with one nomination? That feels like a tall order to me.

So (and we all know what I’m about to do), I’m gonna go with my gut. I’m gonna take Taylor and just be wrong. I’m fine with being wrong. I just… I can’t just blindly trust data when the real world implications of it don’t mesh with the voting body I’m used to seeing. So let’s let them do it. It’s not an Oscar ballot if I don’t go against the grain somewhere.

The Vote: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

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Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Sentimental Value
  2. Blue Moon
  3. It Was Just an Accident
  4. Marty Supreme
  5. Sinners

My Thoughts: Probably the best category we could have gotten based on what was in contention. Most of these are bunched up for me. And I think, over time, you could see a real shift in the rankings. To start — I take off both Marty Supreme and Sinners. There’s nothing to say negatively against them. I can nitpick things, but ultimately I just put the other three choices over them in terms of pure writing. It Was Just an Accident I thought was terrific, but ultimately I do think there’s more meat on the bones of the other two. Blue Moon I like a lot as a chamber piece, and it harkens back to the films made during the era in which its set. I do think at times it can be a little overwritten, and I think that’s what’s keeping me from fully embracing it. Though that does harken back to movies from that era, so that’s why I don’t discount it all that much. Iµn the end, I’ll take Sentimental Value, which manages to evoke so much both in its dialogue and in the way it structures moments for its actors without dialogue. I’m very happy to take that as the choice in what is ultimately a very close group of nominees.

My Vote: Sentimental Value

Should Have Been Nominated: Nouvelle Vague (though happy with this category)

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • WGA: Sinners
  • BAFTA: Sinners
  • CCA: Sinners

Most Likely to Win: Sinners. Sweeps make things easy.

The Competition: Sentimental Value. If it’s not Sinners, it’s this. And that’s just on the eye test. I’ll say this, since we all know where this one’s headed anyway — the last five winners of this category that weren’t nominated for Best Picture were Eternal Sunshine (2004), Talk to Her (2002), Almost Famous (2000), The Usual Suspects (1995), Thelma and Louise (1991). Notice anything about all of those? Acting nominations, multiple overall nominations. It’s rare for a film that’s script only to pull through here.

Spoiler Alert: It Was Just an Accident. Marty Supreme, despite being a Picture nominee, would need a voting database hack to win this the way it’s been going, and Blue Moon just doesn’t feel like it’s gonna get that far with the body (even though it probably more closely fits what could win than this does). Which leaves this as a film that can sneak up some votes. Which, again, tells you just how locked this category is, because there is no way this could ever happen.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Sinners

2. Sentimental Value

3. It Was Just an Accident

4. Blue Moon

5. Marty Supreme

The Smart Choice: Sinners. Clean sweep, 16 nominations. No map required.

The Deal: Sinners. It’s winning. I think we all know this. If it wins nothing else, it will win this (and Score).

The Vote: Sinners

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Train Dreams

My Personal Rankings:

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Bugonia
  3. Train Dreams
  4. Hamnet
  5. Frankenstein

My Thoughts: I have no need to vote for Frankenstein, just as I have no need to vote for Shakespeare performances in acting categories. Hamnet, nice movie, don’t like the writing enough to take it. Train Dreams, lovely little movie and I like how it did not try to expand its scope any more than it needed to. Bugonia… probably closer to a 3 or a 4 in most years, but solid work. One Battle After Another laps the field. I knew that in the first 30 minutes. Then Benicio showed up. Then Leo was on the phone trying to get the coordinates. Yeah, there’s no question here I’m taking it.

My Vote: One Battle After Another

Should Have Been Nominated: 28 Years Later

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • WGA: One Battle After Another
  • BAFTA: One Battle After Another
  • CCA: One Battle After Another
  • Globes: One Battle After Another

Most Likely to Win: One Battle After Another. Golden sweep. Clean.

The Competition: Hamnet. If somehow, in some universe, you think One Battle After Another loses this, there is literally nothing else you’re gonna pick except this. It’s the only film left in the category enough people like. And that tells you the gap between one and two that exists.

Spoiler Alert: Train Dreams. I truly don’t know what else it could be. Poor Things or The Favourite didn’t win Screenplay and neither did The Shape of Water. So how am I supposed to think Bugonia or Frankenstein can contend? So that by default means it’s this. I have zero faith in it winning, because this category is beyond locked.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. One Battle After Another

2. Hamnet

3. Train Dreams

4. Bugonia

5. Frankenstein

The Smart Choice: One Battle After Another. Oh he’s winning. This is fully his time. He’ll get his Screenplay and he’ll almost certainly get his Director. Picture can still be lost, but he’s getting these.

The Deal: One Battle After Another. Done deal. Clean sweep, obvious winner, not affected by anything related to Sinners. Even the Sinners crowd recognizes this is his time here.

The Vote: One Battle After Another

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Editing

F1

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

My Personal Rankings:

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Sinners
  3. Marty Supreme
  4. F1
  5. Sentimental Value

My Thoughts: Sentimental Value is too traditionally edited for me to want to vote for it. F1 is not Ford v Ferrari. Sinners — great piece of work. Marty Supreme — another frenetic piece of Safdie style. Flip a coin, put one second the other third. One Battle After Another is the choice for me. The way it weaves those sequences of DiCaprio and Benicio and the highway chase alone…

My Vote: One Battle After Another

Should Have Been Nominated: 28 Years Later, The Testament of Ann Lee

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • ACE: Sinners (D), One Battle After Another (C)
  • BAFTA: One Battle After Another
  • CCA: F1

Most Likely to Win: One Battle After Another. It’s won the most precursors, and, if we learned anything from Anora last year, some people will just sweep vote if they like something. Plus that highway chase does count for a lot in terms of mindset. Seems like an easy favorite.

The Competition: F1. Being a car movie counts for a lot. People without a definitive preference will default to this because they know car races = lots of editing. The CCA win is fine, but that’s not what’ll propel this to a win. It’s the genre.

Spoiler Alert: Sinners. People will vote for it in Picture and here. It’s a legitimate threat. And I truly cannot see it being the other two. So this is a default third and you’re pretty much guaranteed to have it be one of these three.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. One Battle After Another

2. F1

3. Sinners

4. Marty Supreme

5. Sentimental Value

The Smart Choice: One Battle After Another. I think so, just as the Picture favorite. The category doesn’t always go hand in hand, but this one feels like a layup. Sinners can always sneak up, and F1 is always there, but with a guild and BAFTA win and being the presumptive Picture winner (the previous three of which won, including Anora, which doesn’t have half the type of editing this does), I think it’s the favorite.

The Deal: One Battle After Another. Dune is the only Editing winner in the three precursor era to win without one (and that’s because two of the precursor winners weren’t even nominated. It was also the most obvious choice of its year, but that’s beside the point). Every other Editing winner had at least one precursor. Which means you’re only guessing this, Sinners or F1. All things being equal, I think this wins. If Anora won last year, I don’t see why this wouldn’t win here if you’re taking it in Picture. If Sinners wins, then that’s probably your sign of things to come. If F1 wins, then, well… guess it’ll be the same thing we said when F1 was nominated for Best Picture. Not much more you can do about old except wait.

The Vote: One Battle After Another

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Train Dreams

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Train Dreams
  2. One Battle After Another
  3. Sinners
  4. Frankenstein
  5. Marty Supreme

My Thoughts: I thought about this one after it happened, because I thought there was no way there weren’t stronger choices to be had here. And then I realized… anything that was vaguely in contention this year… most of them didn’t look that great, visually. I think we’ve established that there’s been a steep decline in the art of cinematography. Marty Supreme — looks fine, probably didn’t need to be here. Frankenstein, I’ll never begrudge Guillermo films for being here, since he does actually care about lighting and mood. Sinners — tough choice for me, because at the outset I did think I’d probably be voting for it. But every time I’ve gone back to revisit the film, I don’t find myself blown away by the overall look of the film. It’s just pockets of it. But it’s a great piece of work and I certainly wouldn’t be upset with it winning (for a multitude of reasons). The choice for me is between One Battle After Another and Train Dreams. And One Battle has probably the more underrated piece of work. It’s little things in that, like the multi-person scenes of controlled chaos, or little shots like Infiniti and Hall in the convent and the military team out the window in back outside the door. Obviously the car chase sequence (and everyone will remember that mounted camera on the car when she shuts the door). There’s a lot of great stuff there. And I know the knock on Train Dreams is that it’s basically doing Terrence Malick. But man if those images don’t stick with me long after I’ve seen it. And honestly, I’ll take that. Maybe in a few years I’ll revert to One Battle, but for now, it’s Train Dreams for me.

My Vote: Train Dreams

Should Have Been Nominated: Nouvelle Vague

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • ASC: One Battle After Another
  • BSC: One Battle After Another
  • BAFTA: One Battle After Another
  • CCA: Train Dreams

Most Likely to Win: One Battle After Another. It nearly swept. Won both guilds and BAFTA. It’s not a mystery.

The Competition: Sinners. Because it’s the second choice in nearly every category it’s up for. However, in the era of four precursors, only twice did something win this category without at least two precursors. And those came in 2009 (the first year of CCA) and 2011 (the only time something won without a precursor). This has zero precursors. Possible, but tough.

Spoiler Alert: Train Dreams. It has a precursor, which is good. CCA was also a very good precursor until lately. They went 10/11 once they started, but have missed four of the past five years. Given the film’s stature among the other two, I have to consider it a spoiler at best here. A Sinners win would not surprise me. This winning would.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Train Dreams

4. Frankenstein

5. Marty Supreme

The Smart Choice: One Battle After Another. How can it not be? It won the three places with voters in them. I know Sinners was the presumed winner when the category came out, but the precursors have shown us something very different. I don’t know that I can make the argument against this. It won both guilds (so actual cinematographers) and BAFTA. It’s not as much of a sure thing as, say, Birdman was. But that’s damn convincing.

The Deal: One Battle After Another. Only once in the history of this category has something won three precursors then then lost the Oscar. And it was Roger Deakins in 2001, losing for The Man Who Wasn’t There to Fellowship. And why? Because Man Who Wasn’t There wasn’t nominated across the ballot and I’m sure not enough people saw it. This being what it is, I’m not sure I can see how it loses. I’m sure a lot of people are gonna hold fast on Sinners because that was the reality two months ago, but I can legitimately make a better case for it in Editing than I can here. That’s not to say it can’t win, I just can’t guess it based on what I’m seeing.

The Vote: One Battle After Another

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners

My Personal Rankings:

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Sinners
  3. Frankenstein
  4. Bugonia
  5. Hamnet

My Thoughts: I try to limit my thoughts to just what’s here, but them not nominating Train Dreams is one of the most egregious things I’ve seen in this category in a decade. Anyway, there wasn’t anything that particularly blew me away with that Hamnet score. I think it’s here more on name value than anything else, but good for Max Richter. He’s been knocking at the door of a nomination for nearly a decade now. Bugonia — a lot like the film, the score is good, but Yorgos films have produced better. Underrated piece of work, but not the choice. Sinners, I understand that it will win and fully am on board with that. It was among my top scores of the year. But One Battle After Another’s score was my favorite score. Favorites make votes easy.

My Vote: One Battle After Another

Should Have Been Nominated: Train Dreams, Tron: Ares

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • BAFTA: Sinners
  • CCA: Sinners
  • Globes: Sinners

Most Likely to Win: Sinners. It swept and there’s nothing to talk about here, so I’ll mention this: Ludwig Goransson is about to win his third Oscar in eight years, for three completely different movies: Black Panther, Oppenheimer and this. Wild.

The Competition: One Battle After Another. I feel like, if it’s gonna be anything, it’ll be this. I can’t even begin to guess what people will default to en masse if it’s not Sinners.

Spoiler Alert: Hamnet. Either this or Frankenstein. It doesn’t really matter in the end because this one is locked.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Sinners

2. One Battle After Another

3. Frankenstein

4. Hamnet

5. Bugonia

The Smart Choice: Sinners. I mean, obviously, right?

The Deal: Sinners. Does anyone think this can possibly lose? Because I don’t.

The Vote: Sinners

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Original Song

“Dear Me,” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters

“I Lied to You,” from Sinners

“Sweet Dreams of Joy,” from Viva Verdi!

“Train Dreams,” from Train Dreams

My Personal Rankings:

  1. “Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters
  2. “I Lied to You,” from Sinners
  3. “Train Dreams,” from Train Dreams
  4. “Dear Me,” from Diane Warren: Relentless
  5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy,” from Viva Verdi!

My Thoughts: Not the worst category we could have gotten, but fortunately it’s top-heavy. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” is a big ‘whatever’ for me. Totally fine, just forgettable in the grand scheme of things (though hilarious, given the Chalamet ‘opera’ thing that resurfaced. There’s a ‘fat lady sings’ joke in there somewhere). “Dear Me” is another Diane Warren special, and in a way, it’s the baitiest of the bait she’s trotted out there in recent years. No dice. “Train Dreams” is a nice song. Nick Cave. Better suited as a fourth or fifth, but here we are. “I Lied to You” I’d have been happy voting for in another category. In most categories. But not a category with “Golden,” or any song from KPop Demon Hunters, for that matter. If it were allowed, I could fill an entire category of five with just songs from that movie. When a song transcends quite like that, it’s the winner.

My Vote: “Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters

Should Have Been Nominated: “Highest 2 Lowest,” from Highest 2 Lowest

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • CCA: “Golden”
  • Globes: “Golden”

Most Likely to Win: “Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters. Yeah, I think we all know where this is going.

The Competition: “I Lied to You,” from Sinners. And we know where it’ll go if somehow that doesn’t happen.

Spoiler Alert: “Dear Me,” from Diane Warren: Relentless. She’s always third choice because of her name. But you cannot possibly presume she’s got the votes in this one.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1.  “Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters

2. “I Lied to You,” from Sinners

3. “Dear Me,” from Diane Warren: Relentless

4. “Train Dreams,” from Train Dreams

5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy,” from Viva Verdi!

The Smart Choice: “Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters. Quite possibly the biggest lock of the night.

The Deal: “Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters. Don’t mess around here. Take the easy ones.

The Vote: “Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Production Design

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Frankenstein
  2. Sinners
  3. One Battle After Another
  4. Hamnet
  5. Marty Supreme

My Thoughts: On name value, great category. But Marty Supreme — nothing that memorable enough to vote for, even though everything feels real in it. Hamnet — Globe Theatre, yes, but otherwise nothing that spectacular. One Battle — the highway location alone gets it halfway up the list. But reasonably speaking its probably fourth. Not that it matters in the end. Sinners — great use of the town, great use of the barn. Not something I’d want to take unless I had to. Fortunately I don’t have to, because Frankenstein is stunning (as all Guillermo films are). Which makes it an easy choice.

My Vote: Frankenstein

Should Have Been Nominated: The Phoenician Scheme

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • ADG: Frankenstein (Period), One Battle After Another (Contemporary)
  • SDSA: Hamnet (Period), Frankenstein (Sci-Fi), One Battle After Another (Contemporary)
  • BAFTA: Frankenstein
  • CCA: Frankenstein

Most Likely to Win: Frankenstein. Swept all the precursors. And they vote for what makes sense in the tech categories. So even sweep voters will allow this one to happen.

The Competition: Sinners. No precursor wins at all, so if it wins, it’s on love alone. But given that contemporary doesn’t win here and nothing else nominated makes a ton of sense, this has to be the only other primary contender.

Spoiler Alert: One Battle After Another. It has precursors. Contemporary precursors, but precursors. The highway chase does actually count for something with them. They won’t vote for Marty Supreme and even Hamnet supporters in Picture are not gonna take it in the tech races. So this is the third choice, if we somehow even get this far.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Frankenstein

2. Sinners

3. One Battle After Another

4. Hamnet

5. Marty Supreme

The Smart Choice: Frankenstein. Oh this is far and away the choice. Come on, now.

The Deal: Frankenstein. Things don’t win 8-10 anymore. Things win where it makes sense. This makes sense here. Don’t presume they’re just gonna take Sinners or One Battle here because of what it is. This is about as much a lock as anything on the ballot.

The Vote: Frankenstein

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sinners

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Frankenstein
  2. Sinners
  3. Hamnet
  4. Marty Supreme
  5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

My Thoughts: How in the hell did Avatar, a movie with entirely computer-generated characters, get nominated in COSTUME DESIGN? Can’t wait for casuals to see the nominees get read and go, “What?” Marty Supreme — outside of the jacket they used to promote it, does anyone remember a single costume from the movie? Hamnet — period drama, yes. But do you remember any costumes? They’re fine, but they’re not the choice. Sinners — kind of a default second choice. I struggle with the fact that they had to color code the Jordan characters so people could tell the difference. Little obvious on that one. Still, nothing here competes with Frankenstein. I don’t care how hardcore you are for any of these other films — Frankenstein is the only proper choice here.

My Vote: Frankenstein

Should Have Been Nominated: The Testament of Ann Lee

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • CDG: Frankenstein
  • BAFTA: Frankenstein
  • CCA: Frankenstein

Most Likely to Win: Frankenstein. Clean sweep. Really obvious. No notes.

The Competition: Sinners. It’s the only other thing I can see getting anything close to support to pull second.

Spoiler Alert: Hamnet. It’s the only thing that might feel like a ‘costume’ heavy film. And that shows you just how far back it is.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Frankenstein

2. Sinners

3. Hamnet

4. Marty Supreme

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

The Smart Choice: Frankenstein. Well it’s sure as shit not gonna be Avatar.

The Deal: Frankenstein. 90/10 this over Sinners. I don’t see how it loses.

The Vote: Frankenstein

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Frankenstein

Kokuho

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

The Ugly Stepsister

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Frankenstein
  2. The Ugly Stepsister
  3. The Smashing Machine
  4. Sinners
  5. Kokuho

My Thoughts: I love how, if a foreign film makes the shortlist, it’s going to get nominated. And good for them. Kokuho has very nice makeup, but is not something I’d vote for. Sinners — good effects work, not the choice for me. Smashing Machine — incredible character work on Johnson. Ugly Stepsister — the body horror and use of makeup in that stays with out. Terrific work. But I think we all know what the class of this category is. My word, did they do something incredible with the Creature.

My Vote: Frankenstein

Should Have Been Nominated: One Battle After Another

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • MU+HS: Frankenstein, Sinners x2
  • BAFTA: Frankenstein
  • CCA: Frankenstein

Most Likely to Win: Frankenstein. While it can never be a clean sweep because of the other categories at the guild, this is about as clean as you’re gonna get.

The Competition: Sinners. Clearly the alternate winner. No one’s seen the foreign films and no one’s gonna vote for the other option. This one’s easy.

Spoiler Alert: The Smashing Machine. It’s the third choice because no one knows what the other two are. Trust me, it has no shot.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Frankenstein

2. Sinners

3. The Smashing Machine

4. Kokuho

5. The Ugly Stepsister

The Smart Choice: Frankenstein. It’s the choice. It makes sense. Hard to see it losing.

The Deal: Frankenstein. 80/20 this over Sinners. Not a lock, but damn close. Take the easy one and just let it happen if it’s gonna.

The Vote: Frankenstein

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Jurassic World Rebirth

The Lost Bus

Sinners

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
  2. The Lost Bus
  3. Sinners
  4. F1
  5. Jurassic World Rebirth

My Thoughts: I don’t love this category, but I also recognize it could have been way worse. Jurassic World — no. There’s nothing novel about what they did in that as compared to the rest of the franchise. F1 — more car stuff. Nothing I need to vote for. Sinners — great practical effects (but that’s makeup), but in terms of VFX… ehh. Lost Bus — lot of fire. Feels real. Respect. Avatar wins this by a mile. We know this. I still haven’t seen something that comes close to rivaling those effects in years where those films come out.

My Vote: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Should Have Been Nominated: I’m fine with this.

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • VES: Avatar x7; Sinners*; F1
  • BAFTA: Avatar
  • CCA: Avatar

Most Likely to Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash. Is this even a question?

The Competition: Sinners. The Best Picture rule is still out there. I don’t think even that can overcome Avatar, but we’ll see.

Spoiler Alert: F1. Picture nominee. That supercedes everything (except James Cameron, apparently).

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. Sinners

3. F1

4. The Lost Bus

5. Jurassic World Rebirth

The Smart Choice: Avatar: Fire and Ash. Do you feel good voting against it? Because I sure don’t.

The Deal: Avatar: Fire and Ash. The Best Picture rule exists because, 99% of the time, a Best Picture nominee being in Visual Effects supercedes everything else that can be there. Avatar is the only film/franchise that is universally known for its effects, to the point where I think that will actually overcome something like Sinners and F1 being here. People will look at the category and associate Avatar with effects, whether they watched it or not. It’s winning.

The Vote: Avatar: Fire and Ash

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Sound

F1

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Sirât

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Sinners
  2. Sirât
  3. One Battle After Another
  4. F1
  5. Frankenstein

My Thoughts: Very different uses of sound here. Frankenstein — solid. Just not the choice. F1, car stuff, but not peak car stuff. One Battle has some solid work, and has memorable sound with the trust device, but I don’t know if I take it. Sirat has terrific work, with the pulse-pounding music throughout. Very nearly was the choice for me. But I’m taking Sinners. The music woven throughout it (plus there’s action, etc), I think that feels like the right choice, absent me having been able to go back and really pay attention to each film for its sound. I’ll let time help me decide on this. For now, it’s what stood out.

My Vote: Sinners

Should Have Been Nominated: I’m fine with this.

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • CAS:  F1
  • MPSE: Sinners (D+ADR, M), Frankenstein (SFX+F), Sirat (I)
  • BAFTA: F1
  • CCA: F1

Most Likely to Win: F1. Won the majority of the precursors, is a car movie, and they nominated it for Best Picture, just in case you thought it was only a guild thing. Kinda obvious favorite.

The Competition: Sinners. There’s a precursor, so that’s something. Plus it’s the default second choice in all categories. Could happen because of the music. Just can’t call it the favorite without another win. A CAS win would’ve really made this a legitimate alternate.

Spoiler Alert: Sirât. It probably isn’t, but it’s the only unknown factor. So I’ll put it here just because I don’t want to be caught with this winning. I’m confident Frankenstein won’t win and I’m pretty sure One Battle After Another won’t win. I can justify being way wrong on those. I can’t justify being way wrong on this, especially with a foreign film having one recently.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. F1

2. Sinners

3. Sirât

4. One Battle After Another

5. Frankenstein

The Smart Choice: F1. Won 3/4 precursors and won BAFTA. It’s a car movie. Car movies win Sound. And it’s a car movie they nominated for Best Picture. It’s not like it’s just here and nowhere else. Despite the love out there for Sinners (and yes, Sinners is a legitimate alternate in this category), this is the clear and obvious favorite and smart choice.

The Deal: F1. The BAFTA winner for Sound has (when actually nominated) won a Sound Oscar (or the Sound Oscar) all but four times since 2000. One of those times was in 2022. But, All Quiet won the BAFTA in 2022. You know what won the Oscar? Top Gun. What is F1 if not Top Gun but with cars? I say take the obvious one and just let Sinners win. I justify these votes this way — which version would piss you off more? I’d rather be happy that Sinners won than pissed because this won and I didn’t take it.

The Vote: F1

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Casting

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sinners

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Sinners
  2. Marty Supreme
  3. The Secret Agent
  4. Hamnet
  5. One Battle After Another

My Thoughts: I do need to differentiate between appreciating good casting and then picking something that is nominated to win. Because I do think One Battle After Another has some terrific casting. Finding Chase Infiniti alone is worthy of the nomination (plus that actual military guy they got to do the interrogation scenes). But a lot of it is just casting stars in good parts. I don’t know that I’d take that here, in an inaugural category. Hamnet — it’s the casting of the children, particularly Noah Jupe, that makes it belong here. So I appreciate that, but I don’t see enough past that to want to take it over the other choices. The Secret Agent is terrific in casting a lot of those smaller supporting parts, and legitimately could have been the choice. Marty Supreme continues the Safdie tradition of non-professional or non-traditional actors. Kevin O’Leary in a major part, plus Abel Ferrara, Penn Jillette in those key roles. Luke Manley. Incredible, incredible stuff. But Sinners — discovering Miles Caton, then having Wunmi Mosaku, Delroy Lindo, Jack O’Connell, Omar Benson Miller – perfect casting all around, and I think that needs to be the choice here.

My Vote: Sinners

Should Have Been Nominated: I’m fine with this.

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • CSA: Sinners
  • CCA: Sinners

Most Likely to Win: Sinners. It won the only precursors we have, and we have no precedent for this category. Plus, 16 nominations. Feels easy.

The Competition: One Battle After Another. I think, absent people knowing what they ‘should’ do here, they’ll just default to their favorites.

Spoiler Alert: Hamnet. If we were talking pure voting, I’d say this is second choice behind Sinners. But I do think support for the overall film is going to supercede what is actually being considered in this category, and that makes me think this is a spoiler at best.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Sinners

2. One Battle After Another

3. Hamnet

4. Marty Supreme

5. The Secret Agent

The Smart Choice: Sinners. This feels like the only real contender in this one. I mean, sure, being the first category, anything can happen, but I think, with precursors and a general air of having good casting, plus a lot of overall support, 16 nominations and people who, even if they’re not gonna take it in Picture, will give it something elsewhere on the ballot. I think this is the only smart choice there is. Everything else is a blind guess.

The Deal: Sinners. All things being equal, while it could lose, I don’t see that happening. This feels like a stone cold lock to me.

The Vote: Sinners

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Animated Feature

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Zootopia 2

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
  2. Arco
  3. KPop Demon Hunters
  4. Elio
  5. Zootopia 2

My Thoughts: I thought the first Zootopia was overrated (go back and look at what it beat and tell me that held up as a good choice). The sequel I cared even less about. So that’s that. Elio is fine, which is, to me, the worst thing a Pixar movie can ever be. But that’s the kind of product they’re making now. KPop Demon Hunters is an incredible soundtrack tied to a perfectly B/B+ movie. And you know what? I’m okay with that. Because at least it’s something new and different. To me, the only truly interesting (from top to bottom) films were Little Amelie and Arco. I liked both. If you’re asking me to pick between them, I’ll take Little Amelie. But it really just shows what a weak state film animation is in at the moment. I hope it’s just a down year and not a trend.

My Vote: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Should Have Been Nominated: N/A

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • Annies: KPop Demon Hunters x10*, Arco*
  • PGA: KPop Demon Hunters
  • BAFTA: Zootopia 2
  • CCA: KPop Demon Hunters
  • Globes: KPop Demon Hunters

Most Likely to Win: KPop Demon Hunters. It’s swept practically everything throughout the race. It won at every guild, too. It’s the favorite.

The Competition: Zootopia 2. BAFTA win, and the ‘they default to Disney/Pixar’ sentiment. If it’s anything, it’s this.

Spoiler Alert: Arco. Would be awesome if it happened. The Indie Feature win at the Annies helps. No more than a spoiler, but the complete rejection of Elio makes me think this actually is the more likely third choice.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. KPop Demon Hunters

2. Zootopia 2

3. Arco 

4. Elio

5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

The Smart Choice: KPop Demon Hunters. I think we all kinda know this without having to be told. It’s everywhere.

The Deal: KPop Demon Hunters. I don’t think I’d mess with it. I know they’ve defaulted to Disney/Pixar in the past, but with the song about to win and the film having so much ubiquity among the culture, even the one who don’t watch anything and only know Disney/Pixar know about this and how much other people love it. I think it wins comfortably. Which is wild to think about, given the history of this category.

The Vote: KPop Demon Hunters

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Best International Feature

It Was Just an Accident (France)

The Secret Agent (Brazil)

Sentimental Value (Norway)

Sirāt (Spain)

The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Sentimental Value
  2. The Secret Agent
  3. It Was Just an Accident
  4. Sirât
  5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

My Thoughts: Incredible category. Four of these are legitimately among my favorite films of the year. Just an outstanding year for international films. The Voice of Hind Rajab is the one film in the category that didn’t quite do it for me. As a real-time thriller that uses the actual audio from the event, I appreciate what it does. I just unfortunately did not love the overall product enough (especially over some other films that did not make it here). Sirât is a wonderful fever-dream of a movie that really jolts you at various times (there’s one moment in particular in the middle of the film that’s just… wow). I’m glad it’s here. I’m torn between whether I prefer The Secret Agent or It Was Just an Accident. Both are extremely close for me and both are terrific films. I’m gonna side slightly with Secret Agent for my rankings, but both are incredible films. Still, the choice here is Sentimental Value, as it made my (yet to be posted, since I’m still working to write everything up) top ten list for this year.

My Vote: Sentimental Value

Should Have Been Nominated: No Other Choice (South Korea); Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan)

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • BAFTA: Sentimental Value
  • CCA: The Secret Agent
  • Globes: The Secret Agent
  • Indie Spirit: The Secret Agent

Most Likely to Win: Sentimental Value (Norway). It’s the most lauded foreign film of the year. Picture and Director nominations, four acting nominations. EDITING. Hard to not consider it the favorite, even with it not winning the other precursors.

The Competition: The Secret Agent (Brazil). It’s one or the other, clearly. Also a Picture nominee and it won precursors.

Spoiler Alert: It Was Just an Accident (France). It’s the only other film nominated in a major category. Don’t think it’s possible to get this far, but if it’s anything, it’s this.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Sentimental Value (Norway)

2. The Secret Agent (Brazil)

3. It Was Just an Accident (France)

4. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

5. Sirât (Spain)

The Smart Choice: Sentimental Value (Norway). I think it lost the precursor awards because it was also nominated for Best Picture a lot of those places. And I remember 2018, with Roma. Where it lost all the awards because it was a given. The Secret Agent can still beat this, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it did. But I’m still looking at this as the favorite.

The Deal: Sentimental Value (Norway) should win. But The Secret Agent is a legitimate alternate. The reason I’m not assuming it’s gonna upset is because unlike last year, Sentimental Value is not a villain the way Emilia Perez was. So I think Sentimental Value wins. But it’ll be close. I don’t think enough people will have seen Sirât or The Voice of Hind Rajab. Or It Was Just an Accident for that matter. It’s a two horse race, and I just feel like one is much more likely to be the choice than the other.

The Vote: Sentimental Value (Norway)

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Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution

Come See Me in the Good Light

Cutting Through Rocks

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

The Perfect Neighbor

My Personal Rankings:

  1. The Perfect Neighbor
  2. The Alabama Solution
  3. Cutting Through Rocks
  4. Come See Me in the Good Light
  5. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

My Thoughts: Really weak crop of docs this year. Not even just the category. The shortlist too. Mr. Nobody Against Putin just didn’t do much for me as a documentary. The message is great, but the doc didn’t do it for me. Come See Me in the Good Light is nice, but not something I’d vote for. Cutting Through Rocks — again, nice message, didn’t do much for me. Alabama Solution was terrific and could easily have been the choice. But The Perfect Neighbor is a perfectly crafted documentary. Absolutely riveting. It’s the choice.

My Vote: The Perfect Neighbor

Should Have Been Nominated: Cover-Up

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

  • BAFTA: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
  • CCA: The Perfect Neighbor
  • Indie Spirit: The Perfect Neighbor

Most Likely to Win: The Perfect Neighbor. Without a clear winner, this feels like the favorite. The precursors are not the most helpful. Mostly it’s just a feel thing. And this feels like the most likely winner. Not the most hardcore analysis, but trust me when I say that’s usually how this one goes.

The Competition: Mr. Nobody Against Putin. On title alone (and subject matter, not that I presume most people will even bother to watch the docs), this for sure feels like something that can contend and win. The BAFTA win also looms very large (but should not be considered gospel. BAFTA is solid, but they’ve been wrong too).

Spoiler Alert: The Alabama Solution. At a certain point, who knows. But Cutting Through Rocks I don’t think has any momentum out there, and Come See Me in the Good Light also doesn’t feel like it can win in an open category without people talking about it. So this — it’s got a message and is the kind of thing more people would respond to. So I’ll say, if it’s somehow not the first two, I think it’ll be this.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

3. The Alabama Solution

4. Come See Me in the Good Light

5. Cutting Through Rocks

The Smart Choice: It’s Documentary, so without a clear cut winner, we have two smart choices here, and that’s Mr. Nobody Against Putin and The Perfect Neighbor. The Perfect Neighbor began as the heavy favorite, but Mr. Nobody Against Putin has a legitimate chance to take it. I think it’s 60/40 Perfect Neighbor, but both are smart choices.

The Deal: Legitimately you can take either Mr. Nobody Against Putin or The Perfect Neighbor and feel good about it. I think The Perfect Neighbor is more of a solid choice, but nobody knows for sure. This isn’t like other years where you know what’s going to win. Most of the time, though, the one that feels like the choice usually is the choice. Which tells me to just take The Perfect Neighbor and let the chips fall where they may.

The Vote: The Perfect Neighbor

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Best Documentary Short

All the Empty Rooms

Armed with Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

Children No More: Were and Are Gone

The Devil Is Busy

Perfectly a Strangeness

My Personal Rankings:

  1. All the Empty Rooms
  2. Children No More: Were and Are Gone
  3. The Devil Is Busy
  4. Armed with Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
  5. Perfectly a Strangeness

My Thoughts: I cannot believe Perfectly a Strangeness got nominated. Also, Armed Only with a Camera — very nice, not my choice. Devil Is Busy — love it as a message, don’t love it as a doc. There’s not a ton of substance there to differentiate it from all the other abortion docs that’ve been made the past 15 years. Children No More — great option, could’ve been the vote. But All the Empty Rooms is too powerful to not take. What a brilliant concept.

My Vote: All the Empty Rooms

Should Have Been Nominated: Bad Hostage

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The Analysis:

Most Likely to Win: All the Empty Rooms. This category typically comes down to the message/subject matter than anything else. Lately it’s been the more mainstream docs. But we don’t have one of those this year. So we’re back to subject matter. And this one’s about a journalist who documents the rooms of children killed in school shootings. I don’t see how anything else can be considered a favorite.

The Competition: Armed with Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud. Normally I’d have this third, but I’ve heard talk about this, which usually means support. Especially since most people couldn’t care less about this category. It’s a memorial of a documentary filmmaker who was killed. Not usually what they go for (but a shoo-in for a nomination from the branch), so I’m dubious about its chances of actually winning, but certainly a contender.

Spoiler Alert: Children No More: Were and Are Gone. This feels more like a second choice to me based on the category’s history. It’s about people protesting all the children who died in Gaza, regardless of which side they’re on. And that’s the kind of thing Hollywood would get behind. Because it’s not about politics, it’s about children.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. All the Empty Rooms

2. Armed with Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

3. Children No More: Were and Are Gone

4. The Devil Is Busy

5. Perfectly a Strangeness

The Smart Choice: All the Empty Rooms. It’s about kids killed in school shootings. I don’t know what could be more fitting for them, outside of Children No More, which is about the children killed in Gaza. It’s Doc Short, so anything is possible and even Armed with Only a Camera could win, but I feel like it’s generally safe to go with a message that transcends politics. So I’m thinking either of those makes the most sense.

The Deal: All the Empty Rooms has been the presumptive winner from the jump and I see no reason to move off of that. I’ll just let them do something else if they’re going to. At a certain point it’s unknowable, but damn if this doesn’t feel like the best option for them. They get a message and they don’t have to wade into Israel-Palestine. Win-win for them.

The Vote: All the Empty Rooms

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Best Live Action Short

Butcher’s Stain

A Friend of Dorothy

Jane Austen’s Period Drama

The Singers

Two People Exchanging Saliva

My Personal Rankings:

  1. Two People Exchanging Saliva
  2. Jane Austen’s Period Drama
  3. Butcher’s Stain
  4. The Singers
  5. A Friend of Dorothy

My Thoughts: I’m surprised this category turned out as well as it did. They always ignore a couple of good shorts, but usually it’s for something boring as hell. So I’m glad they mostly got good ones. Friend of Dorothy did nothing for me and felt like the kind of short designed to get nominated that has no real substance beneath it. The Singers was fine. Didn’t do much for me. Butcher’s Stain was solid work, but that chord they were hoping to strike was not as strong as I’d have liked. Jane Austen’s Period Drama is fun as hell and is the type of short they’d never have nominated previously. A little too one-note of a joke, but certainly something I liked more than most. Two People Exchanging Saliva is the one, though. Looks great, well-made, high concept and just really great to watch. It’s good enough that I’ll actually be disappointed with them if it doesn’t win.

My Vote: Two People Exchanging Saliva

Should Have Been Nominated: Beyond Silence, Pantyhouse

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The Analysis:

Most Likely to Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva. Historically this is the most difficult category to pick because it’s truly unknowable. You have to guess what, of the people who will even bother to watch all five of the nominees, short will be the one that resonates most with people. A lot of years, you can kinda guess what the most likely winner is. This one, I don’t see it. Which tells me that this has to be the most likely to win, because if it’s not this, I don’t know what they do with it.

The Competition: A Friend of Dorothy. There’s always that sort of middle-of-the-road, star-driven short that feels like it’s gonna do well, but those do well on nominations. They don’t often win. So while this is the one that a lot of people are gonna flock to as a choice because it has recognizable faces and is sleekly made and has that uplifting ending… I don’t see stuff like this win often. I can’t not respect it, but I also don’t know if it’s the most likely winner.

Spoiler Alert: The Singers. This just has the right kind of vibe that I could see it winning. Butcher’s Stain is far too serious and is not something I see them take all that often (though Skin did win that year. But that year also had all serious shorts). And Jane Austen — it’s kind of a one-joke short, and while they will sometimes go with levity, it’s not that often. The Singers has that charm that they like, so reasonably speaking, this feels more like a legitimate spoiler than anything else.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Two People Exchanging Saliva

2. The Singers

3. A Friend of Dorothy

4. Butcher’s Stain

5. Jane Austen’s Period Drama

The Smart Choice: Two People Exchanging Saliva is the smart choice because it’s the most visible of the bunch. It’s got a little bit of a Yorgos vibe to it, which clearly the Academy likes. It’s not a slam dunk choice, but even in years where you don’t truly know, most of the time the one you figure is the one that wins. So that makes this the smart choice for me.

The Deal: You never know here. You almost expect to get this one wrong. I just try not to catch a 5, because if the presumed favorite doesn’t win, then you never really know. My feeling on this category is that full serious doesn’t often win. So I don’t see Butcher’s Stain as the best guess. I also think they don’t go straight comedy a lot either. So Jane Austen’s Period Drama feels also unlikely. I personally have never seen something like Friend of Dorothy win and my personal feeling is that I’d probably have that fifth if left to my own devices. But I also know that people are gonna consider that a favorite and I always worry that could somehow do something, so I’m gonna rank it well (and that’s how I catch 4s and 5s in this category, because I do this) just in case it wins, but I truly don’t see it happening. It’s just not the type of short that wins. To me, the only two good choices here are Two People Exchanging Saliva and The Singers. I think there’s a 90% chance your winner is one of those two shorts. Ultimately it comes down to whether you think they’re gonna go high concept or crowd pleasing. I can see either happening. Crowd-pleasing is usually the way to go, but I just keep coming back to Two People Exchanging Saliva as being the choice, and if you’re not gonna trust your own gut, what else do you have? So give me that and let’s see what happens.

The Vote: Two People Exchanging Saliva

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Best Animated Short

Butterfly

Forevergreen

The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Retirement Plan

The Three Sisters

My Personal Rankings:

  1. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
  2. The Three Sisters
  3. Retirement Plan
  4. Butterfly
  5. Forevergreen

My Thoughts: I’m glad they mostly got this right. I did not like Forevergreen because it just felt manipulative and obvious at the same time. It felt more like a PSA than a proper short. Butterfly looked stunning but just didn’t land for me like the others did. Retirement Plan was lovely but I wish it was slightly longer. Felt like it ended just as it was… and now I see the point. (Kidding, of course.) The Three Sisters I really liked a lot. But I just loved the animation of The Girl Who Cried Pearls, even though the ending didn’t land as much as I thought it might. Still, I’ll take that.

My Vote: The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Should Have Been Nominated: Éiru

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The Analysis:

Most Likely to Win: Butterfly. Everything I knew about this category was upended in the past few years, when shorts like The Windshield Wiper and In the Shadow of the Cypress won. Now it feels anything is possible. I worry that we’re being too reactive with this one, assuming it’s the favorite, based on last year. One year doesn’t mean everything’s changed. That said, when I saw this final category, this was immediately the one I looked at and went, “Yeah, that’s probably the winner.” And truly, in a category like this, that’s kind of how you know something is the most likely winner.

The Competition: The Girl Who Cried Pearls. 20 years ago, this would’ve won. Pretty much any time pre-2010. Now… I haven’t seen something like this win in a bit. So I’m not sold on this fully as a winner, but I also don’t know. It could happen. I think the name and the type of animation makes it a legitimate contender, but on the gut test, it’s probably more of a third choice.

Spoiler Alert: Retirement Plan. It’ll strike a chord with people, which makes it dangerous. I’m not sure it has the full power to be the choice, but it’s a choice. A lot of people will like this one the best, and that makes it dangerous. Next to Butterfly, this feels the most likely to me.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Butterfly

2. Retirement Plan

3. The Girl Who Cried Pearls

4. Forevergreen

5. Three Sisters

The Smart Choice: As much as I’d love to see Three Sisters win, I don’t see them ever going for something like this in recent years, so I can’t guess it. I’ll happily take that 5 if it wins. Forevergreen is too cynical a choice to me. It’s a PSA, not an animated short. The idea that it’s gonna be the most popular to me… I can’t do it. 4 feels right. I can’t fully dismiss it because I’ve seen this body do some dumb stuff, but I also don’t think it’s a legitimate contender. I’ll take that 4 if it happens, though I’m telling you right now, it should be 5. The Girl Who Cried Pearls… I just think it’s too old-fashioned a choice for what wins in these recent years. I’m keeping it third. It’s firmly in the ‘could happen’ spot, but I don’t think it’s the most likely option. The smart choices are either Butterfly or Retirement Plan. One has the beautiful animation and the vibes of an In the Shadow of the Cypress and the other has that unspeakable thing that will speak to some people. Smart money is on either of those two as the most likely outcomes.

The Deal: I think this may be the most difficult of the shorts categories this year. But I’ll say that and then the one I think will come in will come in and they’ll go way off the board somewhere else. But right now, this was the one I had to deliberate most on. Maybe it’s all for naught. Who knows. But I think, if we’re gonna lean into that trend that’s been coming in lately of great animation and that beautiful vibe, Butterfly fits the bill. Retirement Plan checks a lot of boxes, but I don’t know if it’s the #1 choice for enough people to be considered the full on winner. I think one of those two wins. Based on what I’m seeing them do and just on general gut feeling alone, I think Butterfly wins. But I think so long as you have one of the two, you’re probably in the best position.

The Vote: Butterfly

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Here’s a breakdown of how I see each film performing:

Sinners
16 nominations

Will win: Original Screenplay, Original Score
Will likely win: Casting, Actor
Could win: Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Cinematography, Sound
Won’t win: Director, Makeup & Hairstyling, Song, Production Design, Costume Design, Visual Effects

I’ll put this out there — there have been 15 previous films before this year that got 13 or more overall nominations. 11 of them managed at least 5 wins. After that, we’ve got two 4s (Fellowship, Shape of Water), a 3 (Benjamin Button) and a 2 (Emilia Perez).

Look at this one’s ballot — it’s in contention for nearly everything. Problem is, it’s not the first choice in most of them. I count three clear wins for it right off the top — Score, Screenplay and Casting. I cannot see it winning Costumes, Production Design, Song or Makeup. And also Director, if we’re being honest. So that leaves the scale anywhere from 3 wins to a potential 11 wins. Which is too wide. I don’t think, based on what I’ve seen, this will actually win VFX or Sound. Editing also feels unlikely. So that’s down to 8 as the cap. I don’t think it wins all 3 acting categories, even if it jumps up and wins something. 1, possibly 2 wins on a big night there. Picture feels in play just given the voting system. And Cinematography doesn’t feel out of play even though the precursors call it unlikely.

All that being said — 3-5 wins feels like the range for this, with 6 being if it overperforms and wins Picture. I think it has 3 wins in the bag, I think one acting win feels like it’s poised to happen (Actor being the most likely, Supporting Actress being second just on openness of the category and Supporting Actor being more of a long shot), and I think Picture is also in play. So if you’ve got this in Picture, 5 overall as a total makes sense. I don’t have this in Picture, so I’m sticking with the 4, knowing that more than likely it’ll be 4 with an acting win. So, 3 is the floor, 4 is most likely, and 5 definitely is in the realm. 6 feels like a much bigger night than anyone’s anticipating. At best this should tie One Battle After Another at 5 in my view.

 

One Battle After Another
13 nominations

Will win: Director, Adapted Screenplay
Will likely win: Picture, Supporting Actor (Penn), Editing, Cinematography
Could win: Supporting Actress
Won’t win: Actor, Supporting Actor (del Toro), Original Score, Production Design, Sound, Casting

What I said above about 13 overall nominations more often than not getting 5 wins still holds true here. This one feels more likely to actually get those 5 wins. Director and Screenplay seem like done deals. Penn winning seems likely, as does Picture. So that’s 4 right there. And it looks like the favorite in Editing. Which is 5. Supporting Actress and Cinematography also feel very possible. I think it’s likely to win one of those (Cinematography), but maybe not both. So that’s 6 wins.

I don’t see this in play for Actor. It’ll lose one of the Supporting Actor nominations by default. Score is out. Production Design is out. Casting feel unlikely (but is possible). Sound also feels unlikely. So 7 wins is the ceiling on this, with the floor being probably 4. Even without Picture this should manage 4 wins easy, if not 5. I’ve got it at 6 for sure (though I’m personally going 7 just because I’m going rogue in Supporting Actress, which is not the most likely outcome). I think 6 is the presumed number, with the possibility of 5 if it loses something like Picture. 4 feels like the floor on this.

 

Frankenstein
9 nominations

Will win: Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling
Will likely win: Costume Design
Could win:
Won’t win: Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Original Score, Sound

This one’s easy, because it’s going to win its 3 tech categories and lose everything else. I don’t see anything that legitimately beats it in Production Design. I watched Black Panther win Costumes twice, so I’m not gonna assume this’ll 100% win Costumes, but probably. And Makeup also seems like a done deal.

It won’t win Picture, Screenplay, Score or Sound. Cinematography and Supporting Actor feel like the longest of the long shots as well. So, if you want a range, 2-3. 2 if it somehow loses a gimme and 3 being the likely outcome. It won’t jump up and win something else, so I won’t even extend the range to 4.

 

Marty Supreme
9 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: Actor
Won’t win: Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Casting

This one’s easy because it’s either going to lose everything or win 1. There’s no other option. This has had a terrible race and fallen flat outside of being nominated everywhere. But this also happens a lot of the time. Go look at a lot of the recent Scorsese movies. And as soon as the categories came together it became immediately obvious that it wasn’t winning anything.

Actor is the only thing it can win, and at this point Chalamet, if he’s even the frontrunner, is hanging on by the thinnest of threads. Otherwise, literally every other category is a no-go. Casting, maybe, somehow, if people want to throw it a bone, maybe I can see them somehow just going, “Ehh… sure.” But even saying that feels outlandish. So yeah. 0 wins, maybe 1 if Chalamet manages Actor. That’s it.

 

Sentimental Value
9 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win: International Feature
Could win: Supporting Actor
Won’t win: Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, Editing

0-2. That’s it. That’s the range. It’s not in contention for either Supporting Actress nomination. Picture, Director and Actress are firmly out. Screenplay only happens in a rejection of Sinners, which… good luck guessing that one. Editing also is not happening. Which leaves Supporting Actor (possible) and International Feature (likely, but not guaranteed). So 0-2. International Feature, it is the favorite and I expect it to win, but The Secret Agent can still very much beat it. And Skarsgard is an outside (but feeling unlikely) possibility. I expect 1 win in the end.

 

Hamnet
8 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win: Actress
Could win:
Won’t win: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Production Design, Costume Design, Casting

Imagine what would’ve happened with this movie if it came out in the Miramax era. Here… afterthought. 1 win for sure, Actress. After that — can’t see it even contending anywhere else. Casting maybe, just because we don’t have precedent there. Otherwise, Screenplay means a rejection of PTA (unlikely), Director and Picture are a no. Score would be a major upset. Production Design and Costumes are a no. I think this gets its 1 win and that’s it.

 

Bugonia
4 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win:
Won’t win: Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Score

The 4 nominations are the reward. It stands no chance anywhere it’s nominated. It’s not even in contention in any of its categories. Just here for the ride.

 

F1
4 nominations

Will win: Sound
Will likely win:
Could win: Editing
Won’t win: Picture, Visual Effects

It’ll win Sound. It could jump up and win Editing. Won’t win the other two. So 1-2.

 

The Secret Agent
4 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: International Feature, Actor
Won’t win: Picture, Casting

It won’t win Picture and shouldn’t win Casting. Actor is a deep outside possibility, but feels unlikely. International Feature, however, is firmly in play. So 0-1.

 

Train Dreams
4 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: Cinematography
Won’t win: Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Song

This is easy — 0. Maybe 1 if it somehow upsets in Cinematography, but again, the nominations are the reward. I can’t see this winning because it requires enough people to have actually watched it and actually voted for it. So I’m thinking 0.

 

The rest:

  • “Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters will win Song and likely win Animated Feature.
  • Avatar: Fire and Ash will win Visual Effects.

Wait, damn. Is that all we have this year in the main categories? Everything among the same top-level films? Since when did this become the economy?

  • The Perfect Neighbor seems likely to win Documentary Feature. If not, it’ll probably be Mr. Nobody Against Putin.
  • The Shorts… good luck. I feel confident in All the Empty Rooms in Documentary Feature. Armed with Only a Camera seems like the alternate there. Live Action Short, as always, can go any which way. Two People Exchanging Saliva feels like the one to beat, but The Singers is a legitimate alternate. Butterfly feels like the de facto favorite in Animated Short, but legitimately I can see Retirement Plan also winning.

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Final tally as I see it (or rather, am guessing):

  • One Battle After Another — 7 wins (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography)
  • Sinners — 4 wins  (Actor, Original Screenplay, Score, Casting)
  • Frankenstein — 3 wins (Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling)
  • KPop Demon Hunters — 2 wins (Song, Animated Feature)
  • Sentimental Value — 1 win (International Feature)
  • Avatar: Fire and Ash — 1 win (Visual Effects)
  • F1 — 1 win (Sound)
  • Hamnet — 1 win (Actress)
  • The Perfect Neighbor — 1 win (Documentary Feature)
  • And then, All the Empty Rooms in Documentary Short, Two People Exchanging Saliva in Live Action Short and Butterfly in Animated Short.

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I’ll tell you right now that I’m probably wrong here. The safe version of this is that One Battle After Another wins 6 (take off Supporting Actress) and Weapons gets the Supporting Actress win. And then you have the possibility of the Supporting Actor or Picture swap, making them even at 5. But I think 6 and 4 feel right to me. Everything else feels kind of locked outside of those unknowable categories at the bottom.

In the end, as long as that Scorecard comes in at mostly 1s and 2s and no more than one 4 or 5, I’m happy.

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(P.S. My Oscar trivia article will be updated with the results from this year within the next few days.)

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