The B+ Oscar Ballot: Guide to the 97th Academy Awards

It’s that time again.

This is such an interesting year because it feels like we’ve had such a wild swing throughout the season. We’ve had a general consensus of films throughout the race, but unlike most years, we usually start down the path with the likely winners winning from the jump and then it’s just jockeying for position or shoring up the lead. Here, we had two films win at the top, and then proceeded to see very different films pull through the rest of the way. It makes things feel like we’ve got a fairly wide open Best Picture race on our hands, the likes of which I haven’t seen in a decade.

Most times on these ballots, you’ve got a lot of automatic winners at the top, and that allows you to play around and take chances with the handful in the middle that could go one of a few ways (and then hope for the best on the ones that always can go one of a few ways). Here, all the open categories seem to be the ones at the top. That’s gonna be high risk for the people who only measure their ballots on how many they got right. But, good luck. Let’s see how we can do and let’s see what chaos 2024 hath wrought.

As I always say, if I can get the analysis right and be on track with how things play out, even if I personally guess wrong, I’ll be happy. Plus I do the Scorecard now anyway and that’s my measuring stick. Still, my goal here is to lay the foundation for other people to do well on their ballots. I’m just here to have fun.

Best Picture

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

I’m Still Here

Nickel Boys

The Substance

Wicked

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Brutalist
2. A Complete Unknown
3. Conclave
4. I’m Still Here
5. The Substance
6. Wicked
7. Anora
8. Nickel Boys
9. Emilia Pérez
10. Dune: Part Two

My Thoughts: All things considered, I think they did okay here, given the year in film. My rankings are based on a combination of how much I enjoyed the films as well as how much I would like to see them win. I have to, at this juncture, strongly take both things into account, and will explain as best I can along the way (even if the top is still always gonna be the top). I’ll let time do its thing to see how I really feel down the line.

To start — Dune is #10 not because I didn’t like it, but because I have no need to see it win Best Picture. First one didn’t win, what good would this winning do? The film and eventual trilogy will stand on its own just fine without the award. After that — Emilia Pérez is the film I liked least, so that’s #9. I still did really enjoy it, largely on a filmmaking/’this is different’ level, as it’s one of the most unique films I saw this year and was certainly an experience. Past that… not something I think should win Best Picture. And that’s without even getting into any of the other stuff. I don’t need to. It’s still ninth. Nickel Boys at #8 — brilliantly made, love the artistry, love how they shot it, just not a film I would vote for. Happy it’s here.

Anora — really liked it, love Sean Baker, very happy he’s finally gotten their notice. Sadly, I don’t like the film enough to rank it much higher than middle of the pack. It happens. Wicked — I’m still fully processing my thoughts on this, but, as someone who did not know the book and did not know the show outside of the one major song (not to mention being fully ready to hate it for a variety of reasons) — I quite liked it. I wasn’t ready for it to be as political as it is. Don’t need to see it win, so being somewhere in that middle third makes sense to me. The Substance — I’ve been a fan of Coarlie Fargeat since Revenge, and this is a great satire of a film. Incredibly unique and very worthy of it place on this list. But, given that there are ten films nominated, you can’t vote for them all. So it ends up right in the middle, through no fault of its own. But it does help make this category stronger, and that’s all you can ask for out of a Picture nominee. I’m Still Here — quietly devastating and an incredible film. If I’m going for a foreign nominee, it’s this. On a pure rankings list, I’d have it lower, but factoring in where I’d like to see it win, it’s definitely top four. I’d support the hell out of this winning over most of this list.

The top choices for me are The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown and Conclave. Conclave is the ‘really solid, really likable’ entry, A Complete Unknown is the one I love because I can and will rewatch it a bunch moving forward, and The Brutalist is the one that I’m just in awe of as an achievement, even though it’s not a film I’m gonna rewatch as much as others from this year. All things being equal, I’ll take The Brutalist as my choice. I’ll respect the watchability of Complete Unknown and put that second, and I’ll keep Conclave at third just because while I really like it, I don’t have the love for it that I’d want to have for something I vote for in Picture. For now, The Brutalist is definitely my choice.

My Vote: The Brutalist

Should Have Been Nominated: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• PGA: Anora
• BAFTA: Conclave
• SAG: Conclave
• CCA: Anora
• Globes: The Brutalist (Drama), Emilia Pérez (Musical/Comedy)

I can’t think of a year since 2015 where there was this much question about what was going to win Best Picture. Most years you either knew what was gonna win (Oppenheimer, Everything Everywhere, Nomadland, Shape of Water) or it was between two films (Moonlight/La La Land, Parasite/1917, CODA/Power of the Dog). 2015 was the last time where you saw it going one of a few different ways (legitimately). Big Short, Revenant, Spotlight, even Fury Road theoretically stood a chance there. That’s gonna be my measuring stick for this year.

To start, I do want to pass along some advice to those just starting out with making their own picks. First — well, second, because first I’d tell you the most important thing you can do is get to a place where you don’t have to read anyone else’s opinions to make your own choices. Including (and probably especially) mine. You don’t need to read anyone else’s picks because more likely than not they’re going to sway you into something that maybe you don’t believe or maybe you wouldn’t have come to on your own. And what I’ve learned is that, more than half the time, it’s probably to your detriment. The one or two times they convince you to go with something obvious you may have dismissed will not make up for all the times they’re gonna move you to the party line that’s based on nothing that doesn’t come in because it’s not the type of winner to come in. That’s why I’m not here to tell you what to do. I’m here to make it so you can learn to do this on your own without me. It’s just experience and analyzing precursors. It’s not rocket science. I’m here to empower, not to lecture.

But what I was getting at was — it’s important not to let the immediate results at the beginning of the race cloud your judgment all the way through. This applies both to the nominations stage and the voting stage. Every year, there are films that rack up those early wins and people lock them into their picks even though, by the time you get to the full picture, they’re nowhere near contention. A good example this year was Angelina Jolie in Maria. CCA and Globes off the rip, plus given her stature and who she played, some people would think that’s a done deal. Then, by the time we got to nominations, she was a semi-surprise alternate at best. Here, if you made up your mind after the Golden Globes, you’d figure the race was going to be between Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist. And now look where we are. Both are almost afterthoughts (one certainly). It’s very important to look at the whole picture before deciding anything, because things change, and momentum shifts. Imagine trying to guess a complete image based on only seeing 3% of the entire frame. Why would you do that to yourself?

Anyway, as we know, Picture voting is a weighted scale. I’m not gonna get into the math, because it’s just a lot of words to get to the same thing: the film that wins Best Picture is the film that appears most at the top of peoples’ ballots, not necessarily the one with the most #1 votes. Because if someone’s #1 gets eliminated for lack of votes, that vote goes to the film they ranked #2. That’s why I’m using 2015 as my measuring stick. The Revenant probably had a lot of #1 votes. But it probably had a lot of #4 and #5 votes too. Whereas Spotlight was likely #2 and #3 on most ballots, so a lot of those eliminated #1 votes went to it instead of The Revenant and that’s what put it over the top.

This system is precisely why I had real doubts at the start about Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist. Sure, they’ll get some 1s, but where are all the 2s and 3s coming from? Those are feast or famine type films. If they’re not #1, there’s a decent chance they’re #8, #9 or #10. That’s why you look more toward films like A Complete Unknown, which seems like it’ll be in the top six for most people. Maybe not as high as the #2s and #3s needed to actually win, but it feels more like a contender than a lot of other choices here because of that system. That 2015 year is why my instincts are telling me to lean toward films like that instead of the feast or famine choices.

Now, of course, we have to take precursors into account before anything else, so we’ll parse our contenders based on those and then work from there. The big precursor is, of course, the PGA, which is 25/35 all-time (71%) and 80% the past 15 years. The second most accurate is actually CCA, at 59% (17/29 all-time). The Globes, with two chances to get it right, are still only at 57% since the PGA became a precursor. SAG is 14/29 all-time (48%), and BAFTA is only 13/30 (43%) the past 30 years. The PGA is your north star. Since we’ve gone back to 5+ nominees, the PGA has only missed three winners: Parasite, Moonlight and Spotlight (there’s 2015 again… and also end rhymes).

Most Likely to Win: Anora. With the PGA being as accurate as it’s been (not to mention this also winning the DGA and WGA, alongside CCA), this has to be considered the favorite. Even though this came in from underneath, if you had these types of precursors in another year, we’d be calling this a lock.

The Competition: Conclave. BAFTA and SAG, plus clearly a film that’s gonna get high rankings on a lot of ballots. It’s firmly positioned as the other choice. Also please note — BAFTA and SAG… that’s a lot of the voting body of the Academy. The PGA is a big part too, but the actors are the largest AMPAS group and the BAFTA contingent can often sway a race.

Spoiler Alert: The Brutalist. It’s not Emilia Pérez, clearly, so it’s gotta this. There’s a decent amount of people who feel that Corbet is gonna win Director, and the film is such an achievement that it’ll definitely have votes… the problem is that I don’t know how many people are gonna simultaneously reject it because they thought it was too long. That, to me, makes it a spoiler at best. Had it won BAFTA, I’d be telling you a different story. But absent that, it’s a spoiler at best. Could happen, feels unlikely given what we’ve seen.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Conclave

2. Anora

3. The Brutalist

4. A Complete Unknown

5. Emilia Pérez

6. Wicked

7. The Substance

8. Nickel Boys

9. I’m Still Here

10. Dune: Part Two

The Smart Choice: Personally, I think the smart choice is Conclave. But, reasonably speaking, Anora is the smart choice and the one you should take. It won the PGA, the historically most accurate Best Picture indicator, it won the DGA and it won WGA. Had the film been called Oppenheimer, no one would be questioning it as a winner. It checks all the boxes as a smart choice.

The Deal: Anora makes the most sense based on everything it’s won. My gut isn’t totally sold on it and I don’t know why. I guess because it’s not a movie like CODA that people can easily rally around. That makes me think there are still some people that may not rank it high enough for it to truly pull this off. But people also fall in line to what the prevailing winds are, so maybe it’s fine without them. However, my point is — I see a lot of support for Conclave out there, and if you asked me, absent precursors, what I thought would get a lot of #2-#4 votes, the two films I’d have given you are Conclave and A Complete Unknown. And I worry that if Conclave is higher than Anora on a majority of ballots, you’re gonna see it pull off that upset in the end. And that’s what my gut has been telling me and why I’m so much leaning toward Conclave here. I don’t think you can make a case for most other films, and I think you’d know if Complete Unknown truly had a shot at upsetting. The Brutalist is not a terrible spoiler pick if you’re holding that flag and think everything sways back to that, but given how often Picture and Director seem to have split lately, I think it’s more of a risk to take it. I’d rather opt for it in Director than here (even if the odds are even more stacked against it in Director, statistically-speaking).

My feeling about it is this — Anora’s the smarter choice on a pick ’em ballot. On a Scorecard, I’ve got Anora and Conclave 1 and 2. So worst case scenario, I’m probably getting a 2. Which makes me more confident in trusting my gut, which is telling me to take Conclave. I can live with being wrong. There are 23 categories. Take out the three Shorts categories, which can go any way at any time, you’ve got 20. There’s always about five categories where there’s enough wiggle room that you can take your shots and try to pull an upset (though pro tip, try to limit those ‘shots’ to 3 categories. If it’s a legitimate toss up, fair. If you’re going against the grain a little bit, keep it around 3 max). Most of the time, those categories are things like Sound or Production Design. This year, it just happens to be Picture and Director. I can live with being wrong so long as I feel like I got the analysis part right and get the Scorecard part close enough.

All this is to say, Anora is probably gonna win, based on everything I’ve seen go down, but I still feel like Conclave can pull this out and want to take that. Analytics tell me it’s Anora, eye test tells me Conclave. I’m covered if either wins, but in the toss up, give me Conclave and let’s make it interesting.

The Vote: Conclave

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Director

Sean Baker, Anora

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

My Personal Rankings:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
2. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
3. Sean Baker, Anora
4. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

My Thoughts: Surprised this was the category we got, but I’m not upset. Mostly because I’m so happy that Mangold finally got some recognition after all these years of making great, eminently rewatchable movies that never seem to have gotten to the level of major nominations. Same for Baker, to a lesser extent (though justice for Florida Project). Also thrilled for Fargeat, just because I know it’s not easy for a woman to get nominated here. Plus Audiard directed one of the more audacious films of the year, so he totally fits. And Corbet’s achievement is just stunning and what this category is built on, going back to Coppola and Kazan and Stevens. So this is a great category (even if I am surprised about Edward Berger being left out).

All things being equal, knowing I’d never vote for either of them, I’d rank Mangold over Audiard. Audiard’s film is flashier, but Mangold does what he’s always done, which is make a film that you can rewatch over and over, which is a really hard thing to do. And over time, that’s what I feel like I’m gonna respect more. Audiard’s effort is tremendous, and he’s worthy of being here, but I do really respect that Mangold makes a film that isn’t flashy, but is one you can live in for two-plus hours and feel at home in.

Baker — I love his cinema vérité approach to his films, and I think his effort is very much underrated. That said, I don’t love it enough to want to take it. He’s the epitome of that nominee I respect but wouldn’t want to vote for, even though I’ve got no issues for anyone who does. Fargeat I think crafts one of the most memorable films of the year, with images that will stay with a lot of people long after they’ve seen the film. I respect the hell out of that and she almost becomes the vote because of it. But The Brutalist — that’s the kind of epic that makes Corbet undeniable. That’s what Director is about. Let them give Picture to Around the World in 80 Days. But what wins Director? Giant. The sprawling masterpiece. Corbet’s the choice.

My Vote: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Should Have Been Nominated: Jane Schoenbrun, I Saw the TV Glow

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• DGA: Baker
• BAFTA: Corbet
• Globes: Corbet

CCA went off the board with John M. Chu (which is just wild to me, but I digress).

Once again, in a top category, I’m looking at the normally automatic precursor and going “…are we sure about this? I don’t know…”

Most Likely to Win: Sean Baker, Anora. The DGA is 68/76 all time in predicting winners. That is a hair just under 90%. To not put him here would be to reevaluate the meaning of the words ‘most likely’.

The Competition: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist. He’s won the other two precursors. If it’s not Baker, it’s him. I think we understand this.

Spoiler Alert: Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez. If it’s not Baker or Cobet, then it’s chaos and no one knows. Mangold seems like the nomination is the reward, and while Fargeat feels more likely to be the third on a neutral playing field, I’ve far too often seen people find weird ways and reasons not to vote for a woman. So color me doubtful she’ll actually get the support even though she deserves it. Audiard, meanwhile — film’s got 13 nominations. Clearly there’s some support out there, despite the backlash. I feel like some people will still be enamored with what he accomplished to vote for him. I’m willing to put him third even though I doubt we ever get this far for it to matter.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

2. Sean Baker, Anora

3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

4. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

5. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

The Smart Choice: The DGA is 90% all-time — it’s Sean Baker, Anora.

The Deal: The DGA should probably lock this one up, especially with Anora likely winning Picture. But I don’t know… I just feel like the effort from Corbet, plus him winning two precursors, tells me he’s got a legitimate chance at this. Him winning BAFTA shows me real support. Had Berger won there too, I’d have said, “Okay, it’s probably Baker and they’re not feeling The Brutalist.” But given how often Picture and Director seem to be splitting lately (compared to what it used to be), I feel like Corbet makes more sense to me from a macro level. Take out the DGA statistic for a second — 2:1 precursors for Corbet and a split Picture category. Most people would see him as the choice. I guess because I can’t wrap my head around Anora being a consensus winner I keep seeing all the holes in the patchwork rather than the blanket that is still technically together. But again, despite what’s probably the smarter decision, I’m leaning toward Corbet. Again, I’ve got the Scorecard, so even if Baker wins, I’m still getting a 2 and I can live with that. I just feel really doubtful that things are as locked as they look on paper. Normally when you have something like this, you know the winds are blowing that way. I haven’t felt that type of support for Anora out there, and that’s why I remain leery. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. So I’ll take what my gut is saying and let the results come in as they will.

The Vote: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Actor

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

My Personal Rankings:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
5. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

My Thoughts: Very solid category. Of course I’d have nominated Sebastian Stan for his other performance, but him being here at all is better than not being here. All things being equal, the Apprentice performance is fifth on the list for me, but with that and A Different Man, I’ll put him higher for a vote. Colman Domingo is quietly providing an incredible stretch of great performances, and it’s a shame that he always feels like such an afterthought whenever he’s nominated. He always seems to end up at the bottom of the list. But his performance in Sing Sing is absolutely incredible. Fiennes — we all love him. He’s great. He anchors Conclave so beautifully, without ever attempting to outshine any of the other actors. Terrific work, but unfortunately the other two performances are too towering to compete with. And then, looking at those two… I need to rewatch The Brutalist to know for sure, but I just remember watching that film in awe of what Brody was accomplishing, given how much of the film rests firmly on his shoulders. Chamalet is amazing as Dylan and I wouldn’t be unhappy with him as a winner, but right now, I think I lean ever-so-slightly toward Brody.

My Vote: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Should Have Been Nominated: Justice Smith, I Saw the TV Glow

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• SAG: Chalamet
• BAFTA: Brody
• CCA: Brody
• Globes: Brody

Leave it to SAG to throw a monkey wrench right at the end. Otherwise we’d have had a nice, tidy sweep. Thing is, while SAG is a popularity contest, they are 24/30 all-time (with one being someone who won Supporting Actor, so essentially 75% in terms of winners). But, the other precursors lining up are also pretty emphatic.

Still, it gives us a 50/50, even if it’s not a sweep, so it’s not so bad.

Most Likely to Win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist. He’s won three of the four precursors. We’ve only had one instance ever where someone won three precursors and lost SAG… and it was Casey Affleck in 2016 (who won). So until he loses, Brody’s the favorite.

The Competition: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown. SAG’s a big deal, and even without it he’d be the alternate choice. But with SAG leaning more toward a popularity contest in recent years and the only historical comp being a situation where the SAG winner didn’t win, it’s hard to see him as the ‘top’ choice.

Spoiler Alert: Ralph Fiennes, Conclave. If it’s anyone, it’s him. Domingo’s got no momentum (nor does his film) and Stan, even with a few votes his way for both that performance and the one that wasn’t nominated, does not fit the profile. Fiennes at least is a beloved veteran in a film with a lot of nominations that has a legitimate shot at winning Best Picture. Shouldn’t matter, but it feels like him.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice 

5. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

The Smart Choice: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist. He won the most precursors. This isn’t rocket science. I know Chalamet’s been all over promoting and just won SAG and maybe the momentum has shifted and he pulls it out in the end (which would be a full circle moment, because he’d beat Brody at the same age Brody was when he won for The Pianist). But looking at how the race has gone, and what I know about precursors… it feels like this is still Brody’s to lose.

The Deal: I’m gonna stick with Brody, but I can still see Chalamet managing to pull it out in the end. I worry that BAFTA didn’t vote for him, and I worry that the Globes didn’t vote for him. If he was in Musical/Comedy and split the Globe with Brody, it’s possible I’m looking at this a lot differently than I am. But the fact that Brody, without a lot of fanfare, so dominated everything up until the voting body that has, in recent years, I have to keep repeating it, looked more like a popularity contest than a precursor at times, makes me feel like he’s still the likelier choice. But I think it is close. Like the other categories above, I think you can rightfully take Chalamet here and feel reasonably good about it. But I’m gonna let it happen. This body tends to skew toward veterans in the lead categories.

The Vote: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

My Personal Rankings:

1. Demi Moore, The Substance
2. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
3. Mikey Madison, Anora
4. Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

My Thoughts: Solid category. Erivo is terrific, but rates fifth for me. Gascon is also terrific and for a lot of reasons I’m happy she’s here, even though since she’s been nominated it’s been a rocky road. But the performance is worthy of being here, and that’s what matters. Madison gives a starmaking performance and is absolutely incredible, but I just wouldn’t take her over the others. Torres — what incredible work she gives in her film, and she almost pushed for the vote for me. But it’s Moore. Everything about that performance is perfect, and I think she deserves the recognition. Maybe over time I might shift to Torres, but I’m taking Moore now.

My Vote: Demi Moore, The Substance

Should Have Been Nominated: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• SAG: Moore
• BAFTA: Madison
• CCA: Moore
• Globes: Torres (Drama), Moore (Musical/Comedy)

Every year, we have one acting category that feels like it’s fairly open, while most feel locked. This one feels like the open one this year. Still basically went the same way as Actor, though, so it’s not that open.

Most Likely to Win: Demi Moore, The Substance. If she lost SAG, I’d have had to go the other way. But having won 3/4, she’s a comfortable favorite.

The Competition: Mikey Madison, Anora. She’s got the biggest measurable of a precursor outside of Moore and her film is legitimately in contention for all the top prizes. It can happen.

Spoiler Alert: Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here. The Globes win makes her the only other person with a precursor, plus the film has a lot of really strong support (plus anyone who’s seen the performance knows it can and likely will get votes). Gascon has fallen off the face of the earth and Erivo would be a legitimate shocker. Torres is the clear #3, especially not having been nominated (and therefore losing) at the other precursors like the others did.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Mikey Madison, Anora

3. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

4. Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez

5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

The Smart Choice: Demi Moore, The Substance. One important thing to take into account — Oscar voters will always side with a veteran over a ‘newbie’. Madison has not been on their radars whatsoever (at best she’s someone that sort of stood out in another movie they saw). To them, this is a star-making role and not a winner. They’ll think ‘she has time’ and wait for her to (possibly) get nominated again down the line before they vote for her. That’s how they think. Meanwhile, they’ll look at Moore and go, “She’s been plugging away for 40 years. She’s earned it.” THAT is why Moore is the smart choice. The fact that she’s won three of the four precursors, including SAG, is just icing on the cake.

The Deal: This is Moore’s to lose. And while Madison does have BAFTA and her film having seemingly sweep-potential support based on the precursors, my gut says if anyone truly can upset here, it’s Torres. But I think Moore takes this. I think people are ready to give her that moment and I think she pulls this one out pretty easily. Most people are in agreement about the performance and I haven’t heard a bad word about her, so this seems like cruise control.

The Vote: Demi Moore, The Substance

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

My Personal Rankings:

1. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
4. Yura Borisov, Anora
5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

My Thoughts: This is one of those examples where the performance that is clearly going to win is the one that I liked the least. It happens, and it’s always curious to me when it does, because I wonder what time is gonna say about it. But anyway, the category has solid work in it, even if it’s not the sexiest category ever. As I said, I’m not the biggest fan of Culkin’s performance because it feels like a performance he can give without much effort and didn’t do a whole lot for me (we should also talk at some point about how he’s also a co-lead). Borisov gives a very underrated and understated performance and is so worthy of being here. Though I just wouldn’t take him, in the end. Norton is great as Pete Seeger and delivers tremendous work. He’s just not all the way there for me, as much as I’d love an excuse to vote for him. Pearce is tremendous in The Brutalist and normally probably would be my vote. But while he’s just consistently great, I watched The Apprentice and looked and Jeremy Strong and kept going, “Oh wow.” And that’s the only performance here I thought that about. So he’s my vote.

My Vote: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Should Have Been Nominated: Nicolas Cage, Longlegs; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• SAG: Culkin
• BAFTA: Culkin
• CCA: Culkin
• Globes: Culkin

Most Likely to Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain. Clean sweep. Nothing more to be said.

The Competition: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown. I mean… I guess? Borisov isn’t gonna get votes, Strong’s film doesn’t have the support to make him feel like the alternate, and between Pearce and Norton, I trust Norton’s film to have more broad support. The fact that I can’t figure out who’s second tells you all you need to know.

Spoiler Alert: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice. The performance is such that I feel like he’ll get some votes. If I’m going anywhere on a spoiler, he feels like the only one I’d be willing to go with.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

3. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

4. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

5. Yura Borisov, Anora

The Smart Choice: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain. Clean sweep, charming as hell riffing through those acceptance speeches, kinda hard to see them not going all in on him.

The Deal: How does he lose at this point? Who can muster the type of support to beat him? Sometimes the momentum is too much. Don’t go against a sweep. Don’t take your shots on the obvious ones. Take the gimmes and whittle away elsewhere.

The Vote: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

My Personal Rankings:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
2. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
4. Ariana Grande, Wicked
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

My Thoughts: Fan of the actors, fan of the performances, the category feels just regular solid, though. Solid, but unexciting. Like Supporting Actor. Rossellini, while great, feels like she needed like two more scenes for me to take her seriously for a vote. She’s there, but I think this is like when they nominated her mother in Murder on the Orient Express. There’s not really all that much there. Grande — co-lead, kind of category fraud, but also very good and worthy of being here. So fine with it. But never gonna vote for her. Jones, very good in her film, and always great in general. Not sure there’s enough there for me to want to vote for her. The performance never hits that level where I want to take her over the others. Barbaro — very standout, very great performance. Not a typical #2 and not someone I’d look to vote for most of the time. But here, she rates second for me just because I do love the performance and the category is what it is. The winner, though, is Zoe Saldaña. Feel how you want about the film, but she delivers a hell of a performance in it. Also basically the lead of her film and as much category fraud as Grande, but I blame everything that got her here and not in Actress. I will never blame the performance for being in the wrong category. She’s the vote.

My Vote: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Should Have Been Nominated: Adria Arjona, Hit Man; Margaret Qualley, The Substance

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• SAG: Saldaña
• BAFTA: Saldaña
• CCA: Saldaña
• Globes: Saldaña

Most Likely to Win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez. Another clean sweep. No need to make this any harder than it already is.

The Competition: Isabella Rossellini, Conclave. Gotta be her, right? Beloved veteran, film with a lot of support — her mother pulled off a similar win (with the same limited screen time) 50 years ago. There’s symmetry there.

Spoiler Alert: Ariana Grande, Wicked. They tried to position her as the other choice once Emilia Pérez started losing steam, but it never took. She’ll have some support, but this being her first film, and having lost every precursor, it’s hard to see her as anything more than a long shot. She’s here because I can’t see the others getting any sort of galvanizing support.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

3. Ariana Grande, Wicked

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

5. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

The Smart Choice: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez. Clean sweep. Hasn’t been affected by the film’s drama whatsoever. The SAG win fully seals it. How can you look anywhere else?

The Deal: A sweep when the film has had such a bad time leading up to the awards practically makes her bulletproof. Could they randomly decide to go for the veteran in Rossellini? I mean, I guess. Seems unlikely, though. And most other people here either don’t have the momentum or lost to her at every one of those precursors she won. So, I’m sticking with easy.

The Vote: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Original Screenplay

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Substance
2. The Brutalist
3. Anora
4. September 5
5. A Real Pain

My Thoughts: Solid category. Good stuff here. A Real Pain is a film that just never took for me. It feels like a variation on movies I’ve seen. September 5 is a nice as a real-time drama, but the writing doesn’t amount to more than just good for me. Anora — great work as always by Baker. He just runs into two scripts I liked more than his. The Brutalist normally would be my choice, given the scope and scale of everything, but while the writing there is good, it’s more about the filmmaking and the total package than the script. The Substance, meanwhile, is the most unique premise in the category and the most interesting piece of writing too. It’s an easy choice.

My Vote: The Substance

Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers, We Live in Time

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• WGA: Anora
• BAFTA: A Real Pain
• CCA: The Substance

It’s worth noting that The Brutalist, The Substance and September 5 were all WGA-ineligible.

Most Likely to Win: Anora. When you’ve got a three-way split, you lead with the what won the most important precursor, the WGA. Not to mention the one positioned in Picture and Director as well. Kinda has to be considered the favorite.

The Competition: The Substance. Normally the best premise, coupled with a Picture nomination, Director nomination and an acting performance positioned for a win would make you the favorite. But here, with just CCA, this is only the alternate. The measurables just aren’t there to call it the favorite.

Spoiler Alert: A Real Pain. You have to go back to 1990 to find a winner that didn’t win any precursors. So that means the odds are stacked against The Brutalist and September 5. However, I will also note that you have to go back to Eternal Sunshine to find a script that won this category that wasn’t also nominated for Best Picture. That, Talk to Her, Almost Famous, Usual Suspects and Melvin and Howard are the only scripts to win without a Picture nomination in the past 50 years. Reasonably speaking, The Brutalist is probably more likely to be a third choice here, which tells me this is likely a two-horse race.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Anora

2. The Substance

3. A Real Pain

4. The Brutalist

5. September 5

The Smart Choice: Anora. Even if you don’t believe it’ll win Picture, even if you don’t believe it’ll win Director, do you think they’re really gonna leave it empty-handed? Not a chance. This is the favorite and this is the smart choice. You certainly don’t want to bet on it winning nothing, and if you have it winning any of the other two, there’s really no reason to think it’s gonna lose this.

The Deal: It’s no lock, but with Picture and Director in play, I find it difficult to believe that they’re gonna let it go home empty-handed. NOW… I will say… I do believe there may be some smoke and mirrors there. And that being the case, if I only look at precursors… I see the other major choices not eligible at the WGA. I see The Substance, a film that feels exactly like the kind of winner this category produces on the regular, with a likely acting winner (over Anora, to boot) and the best overall premise in the category, and I think, “Would that have won WGA if it were eligible?” And if so, what are we looking at if it wins WGA and CCA and only loses BAFTA to what feels like, at best, a spoiler? That’s all I’m saying. I think I gotta take Anora here, because I’m not sure it’s wise to go against it in all three top categories. But I do think there’s a fairly legitimate chance The Substance could upset here and had I not gone against the grain up top, might have taken that shot here, because I do think it’s more than just a pipe dream.

The Vote: Anora

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

My Personal Rankings:

1. Conclave
2. A Complete Unknown
3. Sing Sing
4. Nickel Boys
5. Emilia Pérez

My Thoughts: Good stuff here. I understand Emilia Pérez being here, with the blend of drama and music, but I also feel no need to vote for it, because at a certain point I think the premise starts to unravel and go a bit off the rails. Nickel Boys — great adaptation, great work, just not the vote. Sing Sing — great piece of work as well, just also not the choice. Complete Unknown — great piece of work, almost the choice. But come on, guys. It’s Conclave. How often does a movie about people talking keep you on the edge of your seat like that?

My Vote: Conclave

Should Have Been Nominated: Hit Man

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• WGA: Nickel Boys
• BAFTA: Conclave
• CCA: Conclave
• Globes: Conclave

Conclave, Emilia Pérez and Sing Sing were all WGA-ineligible.

Most Likely to Win: Conclave. The only precursor it lost it was ineligible for. It’s not difficult.

The Competition: Nickel Boys. The WGA win is huge. Given the nominations gap, hard to see it as strong competition, but competition nevertheless it is.

Spoiler Alert: A Complete Unknown. It’s not Sing Sing and Emilia Pérez fell and can’t get up. This at least has real support. I thought maybe it would be Emilia Pérez’s unique version of storytelling, but I think I’d rather go for the broad appeal of this as something that can pull a few votes to be the spoiler.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Conclave

2. Nickel Boys

3. A Complete Unknown

4. Emilia Pérez

5. Sing Sing

The Smart Choice: Conclave. I don’t even need to look at the precursor history. This is essentially a clean sweep. This is one of the biggest gimmes on the entire ballot.

The Deal: This is a lock. There’s no competition for it. The golden rule of picking these awards is don’t overthink the gifts. This is a gift. It’s winning.

The Vote: Conclave

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Editing

Anora

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Wicked

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Brutalist
2. Conclave
3. Emilia Pérez
4. Anora
5. Wicked

My Thoughts: Wicked is well-put-together, but not the winner. Anora — underrated in the editing, but not the winner. Emilia Pérez — lot of editing, great at times, but not consistent enough for me to want to take it. Conclave — solid, very great work, almost the choice. But you know I’m gonna take the 3+ hour epic. Maybe not in five years, but definitely now.

My Vote: The Brutalist

Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• BAFTA: Conclave

ACE isn’t announcing until 3/14 and CCA went off the board with Challengers, so the only precursor we’re left with is Conclave at the BAFTAs.

The ACE categories, in case you want to parse it out, are:

• (Dramatic) Civil War, Conclave, Dune Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Furiosa
• (Comedic) Anora, Challengers, A Real Pain, The Substance, Wicked.

Notice the omission.

Most Likely to Win: Conclave. It’s the only nominee with a precursor, so we have to make it the favorite. I’m gonna eschew any major analysis here and just do it all below, but when you have almost nothing to work off, go with the obvious.

The Competition: Anora. It’s, along with Conclave, one of the two favorites to win Picture. And while that’s not as automatic as it used to be (Everything Everywhere and Oppenheimer are the only two Picture winners to win Editing the past decade, and Argo is the only other since 2010), in a category like this, that makes it a legitimate contender.

Spoiler Alert: The Brutalist. This is dicey, because only twice ever has the Editing winner not been nominated by ACE (1961 and 1969). If you expand it to BAFTA, they did pick up one of those (1969), so only once ever was something not nominated by ACE or BAFTA and still won (1961, the first year of ACE, by the way). So this winning would be, historically, a very big deal. But, absent an obvious winner — where’s Wicked gonna get the votes? They typically need to take it seriously to want to vote for it here. But maybe. It’s plausible enough. And Emilia Pérez… they seem very much like they’re not taking it most places. So it almost has to be this, right?

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Conclave

2. Anora

3. The Brutalist

4. Wicked

5. Emilia Pérez

The Smart Choice: I rightly don’t know what the smart choice is. Not having ACE makes this perhaps the most toss-up category we have on the main ballot. I guess it’s Conclave, right? The last film to win without a precursor was Dune, in a year where the precursors split across the board and they defaulted to the obvious ‘big’ choice. The film to win before that without a precursor? Traffic. 25 years ago.

All this is to say, without a flashy choice (and the benefit of the guild), I have to default to the main Picture contenders. Which means Conclave, Anora and The Brutalist. Can’t see Wicked coming out of nowhere and Emilia Pérez, given the season it’s had, would truly surprise me. So it’s gotta be one of the other three. The Brutalist would also be really surprising, having missed both the guild and BAFTA. That seems like a bad play, given the history. Which means that, more than likely, the smart choice is to go with what you’re leaning toward in Picture. Editing usually does tip off Picture a lot of the time, so matching it is usually a good call.

The Deal: This one can go almost any way and I wouldn’t be surprised. Wicked’s the only one that would actually surprise me, just because it means they specifically didn’t vote for any of the others. Emilia Pérez would make me raise an eyebrow, just because it seems like they’re eschewing it most places, yet voted for it here. This is a category where so many years I say, “Watch Editing. If (x) wins Editing, it’ll tell you where Picture is going.” So at that point, if you’re taking Conclave in Picture, you should probably take it here. If you’re taking Anora, you should probably take Anora. What else can you do? It’s almost like splitting the (formerly two) Sound categories. You wanna guess the split wrong and get both wrong? My instinct says, not only with me taking Conclave in Picture and it having a slightly greater ‘editing’ vibe (whereas Anora’s editing is more subtle), Conclave feels like the right option.

The Vote: Conclave

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Maria

Nosferatu

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Brutalist
2. Nosferatu
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Maria
5. Emilia Pérez

My Thoughts: Good category that could’ve been great. Emilia Pérez is not the most visual film ever, and while it looks fine, this nomination feels like stat padding. Maria does look really good in a classical sense, but it also wasn’t as exciting to me as, say, Maestro was. Good for Ed Lachman though. Nominations in consecutive years. Dune Part Two continues on the great work of Greig Fraser from the first film. But it doesn’t really up the bar to a degree where I want to vote for it again (he also got robbed for The Batman, so I’m fine if this is a make-up). Nosferatu, meanwhile, continues the visual excellence Robert Eggers has built from The Witch to The Lighthouse to The Northman. It’s a stunning film. But, you know me… VistaVision, baby. A sprawling epic that feels wildly experimental but also has some stunning images along the way. It’s The Brutalist for me and it’s not even close (and it should be).

My Vote: The Brutalist

Should Have Been Nominated: Conclave, A Complete Unknown

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• ASC: Maria
• BAFTA: The Brutalist
• BSC: The Brutalist
• CCA: Nosferatu

The thing about Cinematography is — lately the precursors tell you everything. The last film to win without a precursor win was Hugo in 2011. Since then, every single winner has had multiple precursors. Also, in case it helps — ASC is 7/10 the past decade, BAFTA is 9/10, BSC is 5/10 and CCA is 7/10 (and has missed three of the past four).

Most Likely to Win: The Brutalist. It has multiple precursors and is in a category without a lot of major contenders. Seems like an easy winner. (Also would be the first VistaVision winner since To Catch a Thief, for what that’s worth.)

The Competition: Nosferatu. It’s got a precursor, and at this point Eggers is known for the visuals. I worry that people still lock him and the film into the ‘genre’ box and won’t take it seriously enough to get the traction it needs to win. In a pure vacuum, if you presented me this category I probably wouldn’t put this higher than third. But we’ll put it second because of the precursor (even if they’re critics).

Spoiler Alert: Dune: Part Two. I considered moving this up to second, even without a precursor, just because the first one won and I don’t know how many people actually saw and cared for Nosferatu enough to vote for it. Plus I worry that a lot of people won’t have seen Maria to vote for it (more on that below), and it’s clear people aren’t voting for Emilia Pérez here, of most places. This at least carries the air of ‘really good visuals’, and that, in a category like this, is a enough to get it some votes. Reflex voting can be a thing in the tech categories.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. The Brutalist

2. Nosferatu

3. Dune: Part Two

4. Maria

5. Emilia Pérez

The Smart Choice: It’s The Brutalist. Clear favorite. Emilia Pérez does not really evoke the feeling of ‘great visuals’ (which is what wins this category a lot of the time), and Maria, while it did win ASC — this is it’s its only nomination, and…

Numbers time, kids.

There have only been 4 winners ever that have won Cinematography as their film’s only nomination.

Three of those four came in the first four years of the category (and Cinematography is one of the only original categories on the ballot, so that ‘ever’ goes back as far as Best Picture does). The last time it’s happened was She Wore a Yellow Ribbon in 1949! And there were two Cinematography categories then! Also, only 2 more times did something win (competitively, there are two cases in the 30s with honorary Cinematography wins) with just 2 overall nominations (1941 and 1947). And because I can — only 12 more films won with just 3, 9 of which happened 70 or more years ago (1956 was the most recent). So that all means that of 123 (until tonight) all-time winners (in competitive categories) for Cinematography, 108 of them had 4 or more overall nominations. Since 1956 (and that includes an entire decade with two Cinematography categories), only three films won the category with 3 (not even fewer, 3) nominations: A River Runs Through It, Legends of the Fall, Pan’s Labyrinth.

What does all that mean? It means take Maria at your own risk.

I say all that to say — with two precursor wins, all those nominations and probably some people looking to make up for not voting for it in Picture, The Brutalist seems like the smart choice.

The Deal: With 10 overall nominations, an ‘epic’ feel and some very standout visuals (plus two precursor wins), The Brutalist is the most likely choice here. Dune could get some reflex votes, even though I do feel like people are sort of over it (the BAFTA loss being key) and will believe they already gave the first one a bunch of wins and don’t need to keep going. Emilia Pérez, despite 13 nominations, does not carry the feel of a ‘cinematography’ type film, and with the backlash and all of that, I find it very difficult to think people will look to take it here specifically. Which leaves Nosferatu — which I worry about as a genre picture from a director who hasn’t really hit the mainstream at these awards yet (let’s face it, you think those 80 year old white dudes are going all in on a movie like this?). This feels like a layup for The Brutalist, even though there’s always the potential for chaos.

The Vote: The Brutalist

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Original Score

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Wicked

The Wild Robot

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Brutalist
2. Conclave
3. The Wild Robot
4. Wicked
5. Emilia Pérez

My Thoughts: I love going through Score because I am so thorough in the listening of scores each year that I actually have opinions about it. We’ll leave out the scores that they should have nominated and just talk about what they did (but man, in one particular case, they fucked up). I was not a huge fan of Emilia Pérez’s score. I liked the music, but songs aside, the score itself was not something I’d vote for. Wicked — again, take away the songs, and you’re left with just a pretty standard musical score that didn’t do much for me. Wild Robot — solid work. Given the shortlist, I’d have nominated it, so I’m fan. Wouldn’t vote for it, but I’m a fan. My two favorite scores from this category were The Brutalist and Conclave. Both are great pieces of work. They were very close for me and the choice was not an easy one. But I like the industrial sounds of The Brutalist and how well it underscores the story. Conclave is a great score, but The Brutalist has that air of uniqueness about it, so I’ll take that.

My Vote: The Brutalist

Should Have Been Nominated: Challengers, Young Woman and the Sea

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• BAFTA: The Brutalist

CCA and the Globes both went off the board with Challengers.

I feel like more often than not we get precursor sweeps in Score (7/10 this decade), so to have most things off the board is interesting. Last time we had anything like this was 2018, where First Man won 2/3 and wasn’t nominated and Star Is Born won BAFTA (for the songs) and wasn’t nominated (but we had Black Panther that year, so we kinda knew). The closest comp I can find, with only one precursor on the board, is 2006, where only Babel had BAFTA (and then went on to win).

Most Likely to Win: The Brutalist. It’s the only film with a precursor. Conclave and Wild Robot were nominated at all three precursors, so they had chances at winning and didn’t. So I gotta see this as the most likely choice.

The Competition: Conclave. It’s the only other score that makes sense to me as getting votes. Unless there’s a clear choice, people will likely default to what scores they sort of remember. This is one of the two that stands out, with that repeating riff that they’re using in all the video packages.

Spoiler Alert: Wicked. I feel like people will just assume all the songs are part of the score and it’ll get votes on that alone. Wild Robot can be considered a possible spoiler too, but given how non-Disney animated scores never win here, I’m leery it can pull it off over all the other choices. This makes the most sense for them as a spoiler.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. The Brutalist

2. Conclave

3. Wicked

4. The Wild Robot

5. Emilia Pérez

The Smart Choice: It’s probably The Brutalist. But that’s not a guarantee either. This could easily go to Conclave. I think both of them, at broad glance, feel like films with a proper score are are therefore the safest choices and most likely winners.

The Deal: I can see them voting Wicked if they really don’t know the difference between songs and score (or don’t care), but I feel like The Brutalist or Conclave more likely the choice. I’ll take The Brutalist since BAFTA went in for Conclave and still gave The Brutalist Score.

The Vote: The Brutalist

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Original Song

“El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez

“The Journey,” from The Six Triple Eight

“Like a Bird,” from Sing Sing

“Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez

“Never Too Late,” from Elton John: Never Too Late

My Personal Rankings:

1. “El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez
2. “Like a Bird,” from Sing Sing
3. “Mi Camino,” from Emilia Pérez
4. “Never Too Late,” from Elton John: Never Too Late
5. “The Journey,” from The Six Triple Eight

My Thoughts: I feel like these categories get more underwhelming with each passing year. “The Journey” is another Diane Warren special. Absolutely no reason to be here other than them forcing her onto the category. “Never Too Late” — perfectly acceptable Elton John song that doesn’t need to be here but is fine. “Mi Camino” is not the best song from the film, but it’s not the only song from the film here, so okay. “Like a Bird” — great song, belongs here, no notes. “El Mal” is the choice though, because the song actually has something to do with its film’s story and is just a great tune. It’s no all-time winner or anything, but it’s the best of what we have and fully represents what an original film song is.

My Vote: “El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez

Should Have Been Nominated: “Winter Coat,” from Blitz

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• CCA: “El Mal”
• Globes: “El Mal”

Most Likely to Win: “El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez. It swept the two precursors we get. Since we’ve had two precursors, nothing has won both and lost the Oscar (the only time the song that swept didn’t win was because it wasn’t nominated). It’s the favorite.

The Competition: “The Journey,” from The Six Triple Eight. Diane Warren. I have to assume people are gonna try to get her something. Plus H.E.R. is a former winner and I know Tyler Perry’s got people who support him and will toss this some votes. So this feels like a second choice in a category without much for people to rally around.

Spoiler Alert: “Like a Bird,” from Sing Sing. It feels like the only alternate that’ll catch some votes. People respect the film and may say, “Okay.” Elton John’s won recently, and does anyone need to vote for him again? They may, but the last one was for his biopic. They saw it. And since we’ve already got the clear Emilia Pérez song to vote for, why would you think the other one can contend? This is the only song I can see as a legitimate spoiler, if we get there. Might even be second choice.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. “El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez

2. “The Journey,” from The Six Triple Eight

3. “Like a Bird,” from Sing Sing

4. “Never Too Late,” from Elton John: Never Too Late

5. “Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez

The Smart Choice: “El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez. It swept the precursors and the song has been front and center. It seems like a slam dunk, especially when the category has nothing for people to latch onto (no Disney song, no Bond song, no obvious winner like with Star Is Born or Barbie). They may refuse to vote for it a lot of places, but it feels bulletproof here.

The Deal: This looks like an easy one. Take the easy ones when they’re presented to you. There’s no reason to try to overthink the obvious. It looks like a winner, it’s from a musical, they nominated the film a ton. It’ll win something. Just let it win here and move on. If they wanna vote for Diane Warren in a film that no one saw (keep in mind, she’s still never won, so it’s not like people are trying to Roger Deakins this. It’s just the branch continuing to nominate her), just let them do it.

The Vote: “El Mal,” from Emilia Pérez

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Production Design

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Wicked

My Personal Rankings:

1. Wicked
2. Nosferatu
3. The Brutalist
4. Conclave
5. Dune: Part Two

My Thoughts: Dune probably didn’t need to be here, but I’m cool with it. That film has great production values across the board. Conclave did a great job of feeling authentic but with enough uniqueness to underscore the story and look great around that. It’s a solid nominee. Brutalist — great work. Not as standout as I’d have hoped. But also I get it. There’s only so much budget they had. So just being memorable enough to be nominated is huge. After that — it’s tough. The glorious color and design of the Wicked sets and the dark, brooding period pieces of Nosferatu. I’m really torn on those. I think, in the end, I will ever-so-slightly side with Wicked, just because I do know that Nosferatu used some actual locations and dressed them., whereas I do like that Wicked built a lot of those sets and had a lot of different locations to work with. I may swap the vote over time, but right now, I’ll take Wicked.

My Vote: Wicked

Should Have Been Nominated: I’m happy with this.

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• ADG: Nosferatu (Period), Wicked (Fantasy), Conclave (Contemporary)
• BAFTA: Wicked
• CCA: Wicked
• SDSA: Wicked (Musical), Conclave (Contemporary)

This is the part of the ballot most people get nervous because you’re open to random things happening. This year, this is the most comfortable part of the ballot because you know what’s gonna happen.

Most Likely to Win: Wicked. It won every precursor. Plus it’s a colorful musical with 10 nominations that people like a lot but not enough to vote for at the top. Which means this is exactly the place they’ll look to vote for it.

The Competition: Nosferatu. It won the guild, it’s a lush period piece and the production design is incredible. Not gonna beat Wicked, but it’s the only obvious competition for reasons I will state in a second.

Spoiler Alert: Conclave. Yes, this did win two precursors, but it did split them with Wicked and it also is a contemporary film, and contemporary films do not win this category (unless they’re musicals and/or have fantasy sequences, like La La Land and All That Jazz, the last two to do it). The last purely contemporary film to win this category was… wait for it… All the President’s Men. I know they liked this a lot, but it would be a major historical upset if this won. So spoiler, not competition.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Wicked

2. Nosferatu

3. Conclave

4. The Brutalist

5. Dune: Part Two

The Smart Choice: It’s Wicked. I think we all know it’s gonna win. Swept the precursors, everything about it screams production design. I cannot stress this enough — take the easy ones when you get the easy ones.

The Deal: Sure, they could decide to take Conclave and it would be a huge upset and break 50 years of precedent. Sure, The Brutalist or Dune could win. The Brutalist is about architecture and the first Dune won this category. But Wicked makes far too much sense to try to go opposite it. So just take it and let them go elsewhere if they’re gonna go elsewhere.

The Vote: Wicked

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Costume Design

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Wicked

My Personal Rankings:

1. Wicked
2. Nosferatu
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Conclave
5. Gladiator II

My Thoughts: Good category. Conclave — costumes are great. Very same-y, though. Gladiator — also more of the same from the first one, though nice. Wouldn’t take either. Complete Unknown — great stuff, really lived-in period feel. Love the costumes there. Just not the choice. Nosferatu — glorious work. Almost the choice. But Wicked’s got too much going on to not take. Musical, fantasy, color — more so than Production Design, it’s earned this one.

My Vote: Wicked

Should Have Been Nominated: I’m okay with this.

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• CDG: Nosferatu (Period), Wicked (Fantasy), Conclave (Contemporary)
• BAFTA: Wicked
• CCA: Wicked

Most Likely to Win: Wicked. Another sweep and another category where it makes way too much sense. Clear favorite.

The Competition: Nosferatu. It’s the only other (non-contemporary) film with a precursor. Lotta frills. It’ll catch votes.

Spoiler Alert: Conclave. It can happen. But note, the last contemporary film to win this category was The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert. Before that, it was All That Jazz. It never happens. Keep it as a spoiler.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Wicked

2. Nosferatu

3. Conclave

4. A Complete Unknown

5. Gladiator II

The Smart Choice: Wicked. They like to vote for films where they make sense. This makes a ton of sense here and swept everything. It’s happening.

The Deal: Nosferatu is really the only alternate I can see catching votes. Gladiator will be an afterthought, Complete Unknown isn’t flashy enough for them, and Conclave seems like it can only win in an abject rejection of Wicked, which seems very unlikely. They just don’t vote contemporary. Which means if it’s anything, it’s Nosferatu. So I’ll stick with the overwhelming favorite.

The Vote: Wicked

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

A Different Man

Emilia Pérez

Nosferatu

The Substance

Wicked

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Substance
2. A Different Man
3. Nosferatu
4. Wicked
5. Emilia Pérez

My Thoughts: Emilia Pérez is mostly the makeup in the first act, with Gascon as the drug lord. It’s solid work, but not the choice. Wicked is largely hairstyling, plus the green makeup. Solid, also not the choice. Nosferatu has a lot of hairstyling, plus Skarsgard. Very solid work, but it’s not the other two. Different Man — incredible prosthetics work… that unfortunately is only in the first act. The Substance, meanwhile — incredible prosthetics work for a lot of the film. And then that third act alone… it’s the winner.

My Vote: The Substance

Should Have Been Nominated: I’m good with this.

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• MU+HS: The Substance x2, Wicked x2
• BAFTA: The Substance
• CCA: Wicked

Well… this makes things pretty straightforward, doesn’t it?

Most Likely to Win: The Substance. Won BAFTA, won at the guild, has a lead performance that is likely to win alongside it (which has been the case for the past three winners). Not to mention… the third act. Seems like an easy favorite.

The Competition: Wicked. It’s gonna get a bunch of tech category votes, and it does have some precursors (even though CCA is questionable and it split the guild with The Substance). But the work is front and center and it’s very high profile. I can see this pulling enough votes for second, with a (very) small outside shot at winning on a sweep vote in the tech categories.

Spoiler Alert: Emilia Pérez. Maybe? It should be A Different Man, but the film has been ignored everywhere and I can’t assume enough people saw it to vote for it (still, the work there is enough to make it third choice and it probably should be third). Between Nosferatu and Emilia Pérez, I’ll take the film that has 13 nominations as the one that might catch more votes here outside the other two. We’d all be pretty shocked if this got past the top two choices, so at this point I’m just looking to make sure my losses aren’t that substantial. Because if it’s not those top two, I have no idea how they got to what they got to.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. The Substance

2. Wicked

3. A Different Man

4. Emilia Pérez

5. Nosferatu

The Smart Choice: The Substance. It should win this in a landslide. The film is exactly what this category is about.

The Deal: Take the easy one. I’ll say that it only really loses if a lot of films split votes and it’s really close. But in recent years (and especially since we went to five nominees), the larger films with obvious makeup and lead performances with transformations win this. The only thought you really need to put in here is on the Scorecard if somehow it doesn’t win. Straight up, this is easy.

The Vote: The Substance

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Visual Effects

Alien: Romulus

Better Man

Dune: Part Two

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

My Personal Rankings:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Alien: Romulus
3. Better Man
4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
5. Wicked

My Thoughts: Given how uninteresting the shortlist was, I think they largely got this one right. Wicked — not sure I much cared for the VFX there past some set extensions, etc, but sure. Rather it than some other stuff that could’ve been here instead. Planet of the Apes, great work, as always, but it’s the fourth time they’re doing this. It’s not new. Meanwhile, Better Man — that’s new. Obviously not groundbreaking past a storytelling level, but still great work. Alien — love the practical effects and respect the shit out of films that use practical effects over CGI as much as they can nowadays. That said… it’s Dune. It’s always gonna be Dune. Those effects are outstanding an the series has absolutely earned another one of these.

My Vote: Dune: Part Two

Should Have Been Nominated: This feels mostly right.

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• VES: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes*, Dune: Part Two x2, Better Man, Alien Romulus
• BAFTA: Dune: Part Two
• CCA: Dune: Part Two

Most Likely to Win: Dune: Part Two. I think this all makes sense to everyone without much explanation. Do we need to waste time on this?

The Competition: Wicked. Remember — it’s Visual Effects. The Best Picture rule is still in effect. Even though this would make no sense as a winner, it’s still a bigger fish in a smaller pond. That alone will get it votes. Should not matter because of Dune, but history as shown as that this is more likely to win than most of the other nominees.

Spoiler Alert: Better Man. Alien is just along for the ride, and while Planet of the Apes won the main VES award, all those films won there, and I spent a decade telling everyone they weren’t going to win (and they didn’t). Which means the obvious third is the other film with a CGI ape as its main character. It needed a BAFTA win to be taken seriously, and I don’t think a lot of people on this side of the pond actually watched it, but I do think it’ll get a few votes and becomes the clear third choice in the end because the people who did see it really liked it.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Wicked

3. Better Man

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

5. Alien: Romulus

The Smart Choice: Dune: Part Two. They can reject it everywhere else, but they won’t reject it here. Remember, it’s still a Best Picture nominee, and those always win here (save the one time we all remember). This is one of the biggest locks of the night.

The Deal: Categories like this are the backbone of your ballot. Because you can know you can bank on them for easy wins to make up for ones that don’t go your way.

The Vote: Dune: Part Two

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Sound

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Wicked

The Wild Robot

My Personal Rankings:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. A Complete Unknown
3. The Wild Robot
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Wicked

My Thoughts: Wicked — standard musical fare. Perfectly solid. Emilia Pérez, songs built into a drama, slightly more interesting. Neither are happening. Wild Robot, lotta effects work in the sound design. Good stuff, just along for the ride. Complete Unknown — great sound design there. Mangold’s films are always a bastion of great sound. But it’s Dune. Come on, now. That soundscape is incredible. That’s the choice.

My Vote: Dune: Part Two

Should Have Been Nominated: Alien: Romulus

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• CAS: A Complete Unknown, Wild Robot (Animation)
• MPSE: Dune: Part Two (FX+Foley), Wicked (Music), Wild Robot (Animation), Emilia Pérez (International)
• BAFTA: Dune: Part Two

Interesting year in that, because of how the category worked out, every nominee has at least one precursor. Though, like a lot of cases, this is a situation where, as soon as you see the category, the winner becomes immediately apparent.

Most Likely to Win: Dune: Part Two. The BAFTA win is about all you need to know. Also winning the main MPSE award as well just about seals it. It’s not a guarantee, but when you can look at the nominees and know this is the likely choice, it means it’s the likely choice.

The Competition: A Complete Unknown. If it’s anything, it’s this. Mangold won this category with his last film, but that was about auto racing. This is less of a slam dunk, but it’ll catch a lot of votes and is the clear competition for Dune.

Spoiler Alert: Wicked. A lot of people would say Wild Robot here, because of the overall support and the robot aspect (a la Wall-E) bringing a lot of sound design to the table. But animated films almost never win in this category. The last one (and only one, I’ll point out) was The Incredibles, 20 years ago, when there were two Sound categories and one had 3 nominees (it also beat Spider-Man 2 and Polar Express, essentially making it a ‘which film did we like the best’ situation). So, if I’m looking at anything as a spoiler, it’s the Best Picture nominee with 10 nominations they may decide to push in the tech categories to show support.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Dune: Part Two

2. A Complete Unknown

3. Wicked

4. The Wild Robot

5. Emilia Pérez

The Smart Choice: Dune: Part Two. It’s a big sci-fi film with a lot of sound design and music. Just because they’re over it in the main categories does not mean it’s not a big fish in a small pond in categories like this. They’ll always default to “oh, but the effects and sound were great.” Plus it won BAFTA, which is a major player, precursor-wise. Plus MPSE awarded it as well. Complete Unknown did CAS, and that is also a contender. Used to be that you’d earmark Dune in Editing and Complete Unknown in Mixing (or, if it was after 2016, just vote for the Dune sweep). With a singular category, I feel like votes are gonna funnel more toward Dune than Complete Unknown, and that makes it the smart choice.

The Deal: Them choosing to back Emilia Pérez here of all places would truly shock me, and animated films never win. So really you’ve only got three films. Wicked — they could default to the musical, but I think they’re more likely to take Complete Unknown, which is more their type of musical. But, since we’ve gone back to a singular category, it hasn’t been the musicals that’ve won here (Dune beat West Side Story in 2021). It’s been either the big, showy sound (Top Gun: Maverick) or smart sound that’s well-used (Sound of Metal, Zone of Interest). And absent a choice that uses ‘smart’ sound, I’ll take the showy sound of Dune. Complete Unknown could win, but since I haven’t seen them go for a film like that yet, I’m gonna let them do it and go with what I’ve seen them usually take instead.

The Vote: Dune: Part Two

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Animated Feature

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

My Personal Rankings:

1. Flow
2. The Wild Robot
3. Memoir of a Snail
4. Inside Out 2
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

My Thoughts: Really good category. Wallace and Gromit — they love nominating them. It was a cute film, but not really anything I felt was extraordinary. Still, Aardman makes the category stronger. Inside Out 2 — liked it, but I felt like it didn’t have the magic that Pixar has with their best stuff. It felt a bit rushed to me and not fully cooked. Can’t vote for that. Memoir of a Snail — enjoyed it a lot, just not something I’d vote for. I didn’t emotionally connect with the film as much as I loved the work that went into it. Wild Robot — terrific film, and I love the animation (endless respect to Spider-Verse for making mainstream animation so much more vibrant compared to the dog shit we were stuck with in the early 2010s). I’d have been okay with it as the choice. But Flow… what an experience that is. That film is a masterwork. All day.

My Vote: Flow

Should Have Been Nominated: Look Back

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• PGA: Wild Robot
• BAFTA: Wallace and Gromit
• Annies: Wild Robot x10* ; Flow x2*
• CCA: Wild Robot
• Globes: Flow

Most Likely to Win: The Wild Robot. It’s won nearly every single major precursor, is nominated in multiple other categories and also won at the precursors for other categories. This is about as clearcut as it gets.

The Competition: Flow. It’s nominated in International Feature. While it’s not as clearcut as sweeping the Annies, winning PGA and being nominated in Sound, this definitely has support and will contend.

Spoiler Alert: Inside Out 2. As usual, you can never fully rule out Disney/Pixar. It’ll get some votes by reflex, and there are some people who might believe this is the best choice anyway. Doubt it can truly contend, but it’s clearly gotta be your third choice.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. The Wild Robot

2. Flow

3. Inside Out 2

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

5. Memoir of a Snail

The Smart Choice: The Wild Robot. Unless the answer is obvious, it’s usually safest to look at the film with the most overall nominations. When they’re nominating it in other categories, that’s usually the sign.

The Deal: It won everything you could want to see it win, and the only doubt about it is whether or not Flow has the type of hardcore support that can put it over the top. I feel safe taking it (plus my Scorecard covers me either way). Flow can happen, but it seems too clearly Wild Robot’s category to lose for me to go in on anything more than a hunch and a ‘well I feel that strongly, so maybe there’s enough of those people out there too’.

The Vote: The Wild Robot

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best International Feature

Emilia Pérez (France)

Flow (Latvia)

The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

I’m Still Here (Brazil)

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

My Personal Rankings:

1. I’m Still Here
2. Emilia Pérez
3. Flow
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
5. The Girl with the Needle

My Thoughts: Major respect to Seed of the Sacred Fig and Girl with the Needle. Incredible films that both make this category stronger that are unfortunately afterthoughts against higher profile films nominated in other categories. But they both exemplify what this category is about and give us one of the strongest overall categories we’ve had in years. Flow — love it, took it in Animated Feature, don’t need to take it here too. Emilia Pérez I would have felt comfortable taking here… if not for the fact that I felt (and feel) I’m Still Here is the best film in the category. It’s so good that I legitimately think it might actually win this category anyway.

My Vote: I’m Still Here (Brazil)

Should Have Been Nominated: Kneecap (Ireland)

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• BAFTA: Emilia Pérez
• CCA: Emilia Pérez
• Globes: Emilia Pérez

Most Likely to Win: Emilia Pérez (France). Swept the precursors, 13 overall nominations, most years this wouldn’t even be a discussion. But even with a discussion, it’s still the favorite.

The Competition: I’m Still Here (Brazil). This was also nominated for Picture, so it’s not an afterthought. But with 10 less nominations, it can’t be considered the favorite.

Spoiler Alert: Flow (Latvia). The other two, while not without supporters, won’t have the type of broad support to contend over two Picture nominees. This at least is in play in another high profile category. We won’t get this far, but I’d say the safest spoiler bet is the one that could also win Animated Feature.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Emilia Pérez (France)

2. I’m Still Here (Brazil)

3. Flow (Latvia)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

5. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

The Smart Choice: Emilia Pérez (France). 13 nominations, Director nomination, winning at least two other awards — even on a bad night it should still be able to hold on here. You can still take a shot against it, because I do think there is a legitimate case to be made for I’m Still Here beating it, but even still, this is the smarter choice to go with on your ballot because odds do still favor this.

The Deal: We know why you should probably take Emilia Pérez. So let’s talk about why you could vote against it if you wanted to. We’ve seen overwhelming favorites go down before (I still remember Departures beating Waltz with Bashir). Hasn’t happened since then, and the category has been really chalky the past decade-plus, but it’s happened. Plus, if voters truly bought into all the hate that’s out there for Emilia Pérez, it’ll make it easier for them to take I’m Still Here. Plus, I’m Still Here is also nominated for Picture, which completely levels the playing field. It’s not like one is nominated and the other isn’t. Both are nominated there and bot also have acting nominations. There’s also a very high chance a lot of people think I’m Still Here is the better film. The only difference that makes it feel like the underdog is the number of overall nominations. Completely level playing field, otherwise. If Emilia Pérez swept the guilds in other categories, then okay, done deal. But it didn’t. It did, however, win BAFTA, win the Globe, and win CCA. Most years we’d just assume sweep vote. Still, the fervent support for I’m Still Here creates a legitimate case for this to be one of the places to take a shot to try to catch an upset. I won’t, just because I do feel like there’s too much momentum for Emilia Pérez to lose, but I think you could.

The Vote: Emilia Pérez (France)

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Documentary Feature

Black Box Diaries

No Other Land

Porcelain War

Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

Sugarcane

My Personal Rankings:

1. Black Box Diaries
2. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
3. Sugarcane
4. No Other Land
5. Porcelain War

My Thoughts: Of the shortlist, this is one of the best categories we could have gotten. Porcelain War, while a well-made film, is more Ukraine, which we’ve gotten so much of in the past few years in the doc categories. It didn’t do much for me. No Other Land — great piece of work about Palestine, but I just wouldn’t vote for it. There’s ‘great message’ and then there’s ‘I loved this as a documentary’. I don’t have that second part. Sugarcane — terrific doc, unfortunately just not the choice. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat is the best-put-together documentary in the category and I enjoyed the hell out of it. It almost was the vote. But Black Box Diaries is the one that I was locked into as I watched it. I’m taking that.

My Vote: Black Box Diaries

Should Have Been Nominated: Hollywoodgate

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• PGA: (only Porcelain War nominated)
• DGA: Porcelain War (Sugarcane and Soundtrack nominated)
• BAFTA: (Black Box, No Other Land nominated)
• CCA: Sugarcane (Political Doc, True Crime Doc)
• IDA: No Other Land (Best Doc, Director), Soundtrack (Editing, Writing)
• Indie Spirit: (No Other Land, Soundtrack)
• NBR: Sugarcane

Sure, there are precursors, but reasonably speaking, unless there’s an obvious top choice, usually the winner is the one that most people think the winner is gonna be.

Here’s the last ten:

• 20 Days in Maripuol
• Navalny
• Summer of Soul
• My Octopus Teacher
• American Factory
• Free Solo
• Icarus
• O.J.: Made in America
• Amy
• Citzenfour

Most of those, if they weren’t slam dunks, were the ones you looked at as the clear favorites. So my only real advice is to stick with that until they start voting another way.

I will also say — more so than that — this year feels like more of a political referendum than we’ve ever had in this category. The two top docs are about Palestine and Ukraine. So the question becomes — do the people feel like they’re ‘over’ the Russia/Ukraine thing (with the past two winners ostensibly being of that vein), or, is the lightning rod of Palestine too much for people and will the Israel-supporting crowd fully reject it?

Most Likely to Win: No Other Land. It’s the one with the most political heft and feels like the de facto favorite. It’s also the most lauded doc of the year. But, Palestine’s been a big sore spot for them. Lotta people either don’t want to talk about it or go the other way. There’s a chance they’re gonna rally against this to either avoid taking it or because they support the other side.

The Competition: Porcelain War. It’s the ultimate evasion pick for them. “No, no, we’re not denouncing Palestine because we support Israel. We just want to make sure we shed light on Ukraine!” Sure, Jan. Sure. But point still stands, unless we get a severe vote split across several docs (in which case we’re all fucked and hope for the best), this seems like where the support will go for those who want to deny the genocide because they support the ones committing it.

Spoiler Alert: Sugarcane. It’s gotta be. Hugely lauded doc and there’s no real populist entry in the bunch. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat doesn’t have enough of a message for them and Black Box Diaries doesn’t have the feel of a winner. This at least kinda goes there. But it is a spoiler at best.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. No Other Land

2. Porcelain War

3. Sugarcane

4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

5. Black Box Diaries

The Smart Choice: The smart choice is Porcelain War. Because I’ve seen how this town has reacted to what’s going on in Palestine. Remember when one of the top agents in the town was about to get fired and it took TOM CRUISE to say, “That’s not happening,” for her to not be fired? Yeah. They’re sensitive about it. So while No Other Land would normally be the slam dunk choice most years, being the most lauded documentary and the one all the votes would normally be funneled toward… the conflict is not like the Russia-Ukraine one. So the category is a referendum on who the voting body is now. They’ve strived to get younger and less white in recent years. If the majority is not the old, white crowd, then No Other Land should be considered the favorite and ‘smart’ choice. However, if you consider this to be same-old, same-old, and think people are gonna be afraid to make a political statement (even with an anonymous ballot) then Porcelain War is the favorite. It’s as simple as that.

The Deal: I’m sticking with No Other Land, because I do think the voting body has changed enough for the old guard to not matter as much, and, let’s be honest — I just want to. I want to see it win and I want to see the speech that gets given on national television and in front of all the people in that audience to see how they react. So I’m doing it. My Scorecard will cover me. And if somehow something else wins, then that’s a whole other conversation that gets to be had about how we ended up there. So, not knowing what’s gonna happen, I’m gonna stick with what should be the obvious and easy choice here and see if they let it be that or do something else.

The Vote: No Other Land

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Documentary Short

Death by Numbers

I Am Ready Warden

Incident

Instruments of a Beating Heart

The Only Girl in the Orchestra

My Personal Rankings:

1. Incident
2. Instruments of a Beating Heart
3. The Only Girl in the Orchestra
4. I Am Ready Warden
5. Death by Numbers

My Thoughts: Not a huge fan of this category, but it is what it is. Death by Numbers feels a bit too manipulative and lacking in story. I Am Ready Warden was fine. Only Girl in the Orchestra was nice, but unsubstantial. Instruments of a Beating Heart was cute (and also horrifying), but couldn’t compare to the top choice. Incident was by far the best documentary in this group. From how they put it together and also what it shows without ever actually saying anything. Incredible work. Easy choice.

My Vote: Incident

Should Have Been Nominated: A Swim Lesson

– – – – –

The Analysis:

No precursors here, really, and mostly you’re just winging it. I will say that Only Girl in the Orchestra won CCA, and historically when that winner gets nominated, it wins. I will also say that Instruments of a Beating Heart won the IDA (and Incident won the same category last year), so that also shows support within the branch. So you’ve got that.

Most Likely to Win: The Only Girl in the Orchestra. I think the title gets you (and that goes a long way for them) and I think it’s likable and populist enough to make it an easy favorite. This category used to be about what the ‘message’ was, but the past five years have gotten much more populist (Last Repair Shop, Queen of Basketball, Elephant Whisperers). Now, your favorite is ‘yeah, there’s a message there, but also we liked it’. This fits that bill.

The Competition: Instruments of a Beating Heart. This also has a good title and it’s got some emotion to it. I, of course, question whether people are actually understanding the doc. Because some will see it as ‘oh, look at this adorable girl learning how to play an instrument!’, and I see it as ‘look at this fucking child abuse!’. But either way, I think this will have enough fans to make it a legitimate contender.

Spoiler Alert: Incident. It’s the best doc in the bunch, and it’s clear when you watch it. But not everyone watches things, and not everyone is gonna care. There’s been a lot about police shootings the past five years and it’s quite possible they’ve reached a saturation point. I can’t really call this a favorite just because, knowing how they’ve voted lately, this is more likely to not win than win.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. The Only Girl in the Orchestra

2. Instruments of a Beating Heart

3. Incident

4. I Am Ready Warden

5. Death by Numbers

The Smart Choice: The Only Girl in the Orchestra. It feels like the total package for them. Title’s there, it will look good on the winners list in perpetuity, technically there’s a message, but mostly it’s just a nice doc about a musician and makes you feel good. That’s been their speed lately and I think makes this an easy choice for them.

The Deal: It’s Doc Short. There is no slam dunk anymore. There’s no guarantee. They all can win. If they decide they want to rally around police or school shootings, then Incident or Death by Numbers can win. I Am Ready Warden can win. You don’t fucking know. But my experience tells me the two most likely winners are Only Girl in the Orchestra and Instruments of a Beating Heart, so I’ll put those at the top and suggest those be the most likely docs to put on a ballot. But otherwise, no one knows. Hope for the best. It’s a Shorts category. Either you get lucky and get it right or chaos reigns. Still, Only Girl in the Orchestra makes the most sense for them, based on how they’ve voted lately, so I’m gonna just pray that holds true and maybe I won’t catch a 4 or a 5 here (or that Incident wins. I’ll take a 3 if the right choice wins).

The Vote: The Only Girl in the Orchestra

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Live Action Short

A Lien

Anuja

I’m Not a Robot

The Last Ranger

The Man Who Would Not Remain Silent

My Personal Rankings:

1. A Lien
2. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
3. Anuja
4. I’m Not a Robot
5. The Last Ranger

My Thoughts: I don’t know why, but I just didn’t connect with the majority of the shorts this year. I recognize that most of these are very well made… they just didn’t all fully land with me. The Last Ranger felt a bit too over-produced. I’m Not a Robot was a good premise that didn’t elevate much past that. Anuja almost is the type of film I’d vote for, but it didn’t stick the landing for me. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent is a solid little short, but I also feel like I wanted a little more meat on that bone. Which leaves me with A Lien, a taut, emotional short and made me feel something.

My Vote: A Lien

Should Have Been Nominated: The Masterpiece

– – – – –

The Analysis:

There are no precursors here and you’re basically just guessing what short the most people (who bother watching all the nominees) are gonna take. You never fully know and I fully expect to catch a 5 here most years. This one especially. It’s all guesswork from here.

Most Likely to Win: The Man Who Would Not Remain Silent. It’s the one that felt like it had a lot of support going into nominations, and I imagine it’s the one that will make people feel something when they watch it. The theme of not staying quiet during dangerous times is gonna resonate with them (even though… well, we’ll just say it resonates).

The Competition: Anuja. Netflix is behind it and Mindy Kaling and Priyanka Chopra are among the producers. Never underestimate the power of money and campaigning. I’d feel stupid assuming this couldn’t win with that kind of pull behind it.

Spoiler Alert: A Lien. It’s the one with the most immediate emotion behind it, and I think that will carry for voters (plus, given the political climate in the country, it’s become even more timely). I feel bad having to put the other two below this, because those also feel like the could easily win. But what can you do? I have no idea.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

2. Anuja

3. A Lien

4. I’m Not a Robot

5. The Last Ranger

The Smart Choice: There is no smart choice here. Any one of these can win.

The Deal: All I can give you here is my experience and tell you what I feel is most likely to happen. The Last Ranger feels like a short that won’t get enough votes to win. I feel like you’d have an inkling if it were gonna get votes. I’m terrified of it, because I do think somehow it’ll win and fuck me over, but past that, it doesn’t feel like something that wins. I’m Not a Robot — they haven’t really gone in for a short like this in a while. Typically they go for things that have emotional kicks to them, or have political messages, things like that. A straight comedic short (and a slightly ‘weird’ one at that) — that’s not them, and I feel comfortable saying they won’t do it. I’ll just let them and reevaluate next time if they do. A Lien is a very tense short, and I do think it’ll sway some people with its political message, but they also typically don’t vote for stuff like this. The closest parallel I can find is maybe Skin (which came out of nowhere in a year without a clear top choice). It can happen, but I’d be moderately surprised just because it’s not immediately the type of thing they go for.

Anuja’s not a bad play, but it is a cynical play. It doesn’t have that emotional kicker they like, but it has a lot of the other elements, and Netflix is behind it with a lot of money. They’ve won a Shorts category three of the past four years. That’s why it’s cynical. The short on its own maybe contends but isn’t a slam dunk. Taking it feels like saying the money will win out. That’s why I’m going with The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent. The title is enough to get a few votes and the premise is standout and the short is good enough that I think it’ll have a lot of fans. That or Anuja make the most sense to me. So I’ll rate them #1 and #2 and take the one I feel better about taking and then hold my nose and hope for the best.

The Vote: The Man Who Would Not Remain Silent

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Best Animated Short

Beautiful Men

In the Shadow of the Cypress

Magic Candies

Wander to Wonder

Yuck!

My Personal Rankings:

1. Wander to Wonder
2. Yuck!
3. Magic Candies
4. In the Shadow of the Cypress
5. Beautiful Men

My Thoughts: I do not like this category. They missed out on at least three from the shortlist that should have been here. Beautiful Men I just did not connect with at all. In the Shadow of the Cypress is a very nice short and looks great. It’s perfectly worthy of this list and its only fault is that I feel other things should have been here and aren’t. Magic Candies is well-made with the stop-motion and all. Just also not fully there for me from a story perspective. Yuck is perfectly cute as well and the kind of nice short we can all get behind. But Wander to Wonder is the one that most resonated with me. I liked how unique it was and how just… off the wall it is.

My Vote: Wander to Wonder

Should Have Been Nominated: The Wild-Tempered Clavier, Origami, Me

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Wander to Wonder won at the Annies and BAFTA, if that means anything. But otherwise, this category is purely just about going by what they normally take and gauging which one they’re most likely to vote for.

Most Likely to Win: Yuck!. It’s cute and likable and fits the mold of what usually wins. We’re all sort of conditioned to go for the Disney/Pixar feel in this category a lot of the time, and generally people will take the one that has that emotional element to it. This fits that mold.

The Competition: Wander to Wonder. It’s won precursors (as much as those are there), and BAFTA voting for it means some voters have seen it and liked it.

Spoiler Alert: Beautiful Men. There’s love for this out there and I’m always wary of dismissing something and then having it win. Could be anything, but let’s keep this here because I refuse to catch a 5 on stubbornness.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Yuck!

2. Wander to Wonder

3. Beautiful Men

4. Magic Candies

5. In the Shadow of the Cypress

The Smart Choice: Yuck!. It’s gotta be. It fits the mold of what usually wins. If it’s not this, then there’s no smart choice and it’s just a pure roll of the dice.

The Deal: In the Shadow of the Cypress isn’t at all what they go for, so just let it win. Magic Candies is sort of their speed, but not fully. Feels like an all around 4. Beautiful Men, while I don’t get it or see it, is one that I’ve heard rumblings about, so that makes me take it seriously as spoiler, even though I’d be surprised to see them actually do it. Wander to Wonder won BAFTA, which means some voters have seen it and liked it. It won against none of these other shorts, but at least some familiarity is better than nothing. Yuck, though, fits everything about what usually wins and is the only short I’d feel moderately okay about taking. It’s the only think that stands between me and ‘fuck it, I have no idea’.

The Vote: Yuck!

– – – – – – – – –

– – – – – – – – –

Here’s a breakdown of how I see each film performing:

Emilia Pérez
13 nominations

Will win: Supporting Actress, Song (“El Mal”)
Will likely win: International Feature
Could win: Editing
Won’t win: Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score, Song (“Mi Camino”), Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound

When they rush to nominate films that aren’t gonna win Picture in a lot of categories, that usually means they’re gonna lose a lot of categories. After the Gascon mess, this film fell right off the face of the earth and has become a cautionary tale. Picture is out, Director is probably out (though that’s open enough that you can’t 100% rule it out), Actress is definitely out. It had no real business being in Cinematography or Score, so those are out. It can only win Song once, so it’s losing the other one. Makeup could happen, but doubtful. Sound is unlikely. Screenplay is very unlikely. Editing — it’s there, but only because Editing is open. It doesn’t seem like it’s a player. Which leaves onlt three categories where it’s competitive. Supporting Actress is locked in and Song seems pretty much a done deal. So that’s 2. International Feature is likely, but that’s not a done deal and an upset is very much on the table. So, reasonably speaking, the range here is 2-3 wins. 4 is the absolute ceiling if it pulls off an upset somewhere, and 2 seems like the floor (though I guess, on a bad night, 1 is the floor). I still say you wanna be at 2 or 3 here, depending on what happens with International Feature.

The Brutalist
10 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win: Actor, Cinematography
Could win: Picture, Director, Editing, Score
Won’t win: Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design

This is one of the wild cards on the night. Could win 6, could win 0. Definitely won’t win either Supporting category or Production Design. And Screenplay feels really unlikely. There’s your 6. Picture feels unlikely, and Editing, while possible, would be a huge historical upset. So reasonably speaking, the proper range is between 0 and 4. Actor seems likely, but it’s not a gimme. Cinematography seems likely, and probably should come in regardless of everything else. Director is 50/50 (though statistically not likely) and Score theoretically is probable. I think it comes away with at least 1 win, probably 2. I’d expect Cinematography and either Actor or Score, with the possibility it loses one of them. So 2-3 is that range. And then Director would put it at 4 if it can manage it. While I couldn’t guarantee exactly which ones it’ll be, 2-3 feels right.

Wicked
10 nominations

Will win: Production Design, Costume Design
Will likely win:
Could win: Editing, Score, Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound
Won’t win: Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Visual Effects

The floor is 2, because it’s gonna win Production Design and Costume Design. Past that, the golden number of a ceiling feels like 3 (4 if they really go for it). It’s not winning Picture or either acting category, but theoretically it’s a top two or three choice in all its other categories. Visual Effects would be a veritable shocker, so I doubt that’ll happen. Everything else it’s in play for, even though it’s more of a spoiler that could happen than anything. I’d say pencil this in at 2 and then know it could pull an upset somewhere (though I couldn’t guarantee where. Score would be my best guess). 2-3 again is the range, with 2 being the most likely.

A Complete Unknown
8 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: Actor, Sound
Won’t win: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design

Two less nominations and I’m talking about this as likely to go home empty-handed. Once you get to 8, I start to think they’re gonna look for a place to give it something. And since you know it’s not winning Picture, Director, either Supporting category, Screenplay or Costumes, that leaves only two places it can pull out a win. One is Chalamet, which, after SAG, seems likelier than it did the rest of the way, and the other is Sound, which is very possible. It’s the favorite in neither category, though, which means the range on this is 0-2. I’m expecting 0, but 2 is possible. 1 feels like a 50/50 proposition, because it can easily flip one of those two. I’m expecting 0, but don’t be surprised to see this win somewhere and end up with 1. 2 would surprise me.

Conclave
8 nominations

Will win: Adapted Screenplay
Will likely win:
Could win: Picture, Score, Editing
Won’t win: Actor, Supporting Actress, Production Design, Costume Design

Another wild card. We know it’s winning Adapted, so that’s 1 win as a floor. Costumes and Production Design are very unlikely, and both acting categories feel like afterthoughts. But, it’s in play for Picture, Score is possible (if they decide to treat The Brutalist like they did Babylon) and it’s kind of the favorite in Editing. So again, 1-3 is the range. I can’t see this only winning Screenplay. It’s gonna win something else. I’m figuring Screenplay and Editing with Picture being 50/50. So 2 or 3. 4 is also possible if somehow Score comes in too, but I’d expect 2 or 3.

Anora
6 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win: Original Screenplay
Could win: Picture, Director, Editing
Won’t win: Actress, Supporting Actor

This is in play for everything except Supporting Actor. It’s the favorite in Screenplay and should win at least 1 given the places where it’s the favorite. Losing all of the categories would be surprising to say the least. Picture, Director, Screenplay is 3, and if it pulls Editing that’s 4 (all for Sean Baker, by the way. He personally wins all of those). 1-4 is the range here. I think, again, 2-3 is the most likely outcome, regardless of what the swap is. Personally, I’d say Screenplay for sure, Picture probably and then Director probably. Though given how I see things going, my ballot would see it more likely in Screenplay and Editing and possibly Picture. But either way, 2-3 feels right, 4 is possible, and 1 is unlikely, but could happen.

Dune: Part Two
5 nominations

Will win: Visual Effects, Sound
Will likely win:
Could win:
Won’t win: Picture, Cinematography, Production Design

If it weren’t for the tech categories, this would go home with nothing. Picture is not happening, neither is Production Design, and Cinematography is very unlikely. Visual Effects, however, is a veritable lock, and I suspect it’ll win Sound too (though it can lose). This is 1 or 2 wins and nothing else.

The Substance
5 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win: Actress, Makeup & Hairstyling
Could win: Original Screenplay
Won’t win: Picture, Director

This is pretty much 2 wins almost exclusively. Demi Moore should win and it should win Makeup. Screenplay is possible, and I’m not ruling that out, but given where Anora is, I suspect that’s more likely as a winner there. And then Picture and Director won’t happen. So this is likely 2, possibly 3 if it manages Screenplay.

Nosferatu
4 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: Cinematography
Won’t win: Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

This is likely going home empty-handed. Cinematography is really the only category I can see it pulling. It’s theoretically the second choice in most of its categories, so it can pull off an upset, but 1 is the maximum (it’s not gonna rack up multiple upsets). And if it does win I couldn’t tell you which it’ll be (Costumes makes the most sense, but it’s up against Wicked there, so good luck). Seems like 0.

I’m Still Here
3 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: Actress, International Feature
Won’t win: Picture

It won’t win Picture, and Actress would be a major upset. International Feature is the one I’m looking at. That is prime for an upset. So this is either 0 wins or 1 win, if it can take down Emilia Pérez.

Sing Sing
3 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: Song
Won’t win: Actor, Adapted Screenplay

Song is the only place this can sneak a win. Actor and Screenplay aren’t happening. Likeliest case is this goes home with nothing, and 1 is the maximum if it surprises in Song.

The Wild Robot
3 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win: Animated Feature
Could win:
Won’t win: Score, Sound

Theoretically it’s in contention in all of its categories, but I don’t see it winning anywhere but Animated Feature. The other two would be surprises. Animated Feature is its category, and while that’s not a lock, it’s the likeliest winner. So 0 or 1 is where this is at, likely 1.

The rest:

• Kieran Culkin will win Supporting Actor for A Real Pain. It’s also an outside contender in Screenplay.
• Documentary Feature should go to either No Other Land or Porcelain War. Which depends on where the majority of the voting body is, politically.
• The Only Girl in the Orchestra is the likeliest Doc Short winner, with Instruments of a Beating Heart the alternate. Incident is the spoiler.
• Yuck! should win Animated Short. Wander to Wonder is the alternate.
• And then, Live Action Short. Literally any one of the five can win. I think the likeliest choice is The Man Who Would Not Remain Silen, but Anuja is right there, with A Lien in the wings as a spoiler.

– – – – –

Final tally as I see it (or rather, am guessing):

• The Brutalist — 4 wins (Director, Actor, Cinematography, Score)
• Conclave — 3 wins (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Editing)
• Emilia Pérez — 3 wins (Supporting Actress, Song, International Feature)
• Dune: Part Two — 2 wins (Visual Effects, Sound)
• The Substance — 2 wins (Actress, Makeup & Hairstyling)
• Wicked — 2 wins (Production Design, Costume Design)
• Anora — 1 win (Original Screenplay)
• No Other Land — 1 win (No Other Land)
• A Real Pain — 1 win (Supporting Actor)
• The Wild Robot — 1 win (Animated Feature)
• And then, The Only Girl in the Orchestra in Documentary Short, The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent in Live Action Short and Yuck! in Animated Short.

– – – – –

Just looking at what I picked, I can already tell you that’s not gonna happen. It just feels wrong. I think more than likely we get three films with 3 wins, a couple more with 2, and then a smattering of single winners after that. There’s not gonna be a consensus this year. 4 only happens if they go all in on something like Anora. That’s it. Expect parity here, and probably don’t expect it to come in a neat and tidy way. I think things are gonna come in as they do and the overall picture is gonna end up roughly about even in the end.

But really, I’m just hoping that I don’t catch any high numbers. I’ll be wrong on the votes so long as I’m getting 2s in the end. I’m really worried this is gonna be a massacre and be disastrous for me. If I can stay under +10 on the Scorecard, I’ll be happy. Give me lots of 1s and 2s and no 4s and 5s. That’s all I ask. I don’t mind chaos, so long as it’s chaos within the bounds of what I expect can happen.

(P.S. My Oscar trivia article will be updated with the results from this year within the next day or two.)

– – – – – – – – – –

http://bplusmovieblog.com